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Horizon Therapeutics Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $-2.54 (As of Sep21)
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As of Sep21, Horizon Therapeutics's earnings power value is $-2.54. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Horizon Therapeutics Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Horizon Therapeutics's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Horizon Therapeutics Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -22.66 -7.16 -0.97 2.81 8.42

Horizon Therapeutics Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 7.49 8.42 -3.94 -3.59 -2.54

Competitive Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Horizon Therapeutics's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Horizon Therapeutics Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Horizon Therapeutics's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Horizon Therapeutics's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Horizon Therapeutics Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Horizon Therapeutics's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 1,657
DDA 269
Operating Margin % -1.22
SGA * 25% 213
Tax Rate % 83.27
Maintenance Capex 63
Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,069
Short-Term Debt 16
Long-Term Debt 2,558
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 236

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = -1.22%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $ Mil, Average Operating Margin = -1.22%, Average Adjusted SGA = 213,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 1,657 * -1.22% +213 = $192.77398647 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 83.27%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $192.77398647 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 192.77398647 * ( 1 - 83.27% ) = $32.243376976972 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 269 * 0.5 * 83.27% = $112.15925238 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 32.243376976972 + 112.15925238 = $144.40262935697 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Horizon Therapeutics's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $63 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Horizon Therapeutics's current cash and cash equivalent = $1,069 Mil.
Horizon Therapeutics's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 2,558 + 16 = $2573.864 Mil.
Horizon Therapeutics's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 236 Mil.

Horizon Therapeutics's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Sep21 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 144.40262935697 - 63)/ 9%+1,069-2573.864 )/236
=-2.54

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -2.5411717635002-100.67 )/-2.5411717635002
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Horizon Therapeutics  (NAS:HZNP) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Horizon Therapeutics Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Horizon Therapeutics's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Horizon Therapeutics Business Description

Horizon Therapeutics logo
Industry
Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 Burlington Road, Connaught House, 1st Floor, Dublin, IRL, D04 C5Y6
Horizon Therapeutics PLC is a specialty and generic drug manufacturing company. The company is focused on researching, developing and commercializing medicines that address critical needs for people impacted by rare and rheumatic diseases. The company has two reportable segments: orphan and rheumatology segment and the inflammation segment. It markets medicines in the areas of orphan diseases, rheumatology and inflammation division. The majority of revenue is generated in the United States.
Executives
Sherman Jeffrey W officer: EVP and Chief Medical Officer C/O IDM PHARMA, INC. 9 PARKER, SUITE 100 IRVINE CA 92618
Camardo Daniel A. officer: EVP and President, U.S. C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS, PLC CONNAUGHT HOUSE, 1ST FL, 1 BURLINGTON RD DUBLIN L2 D04 C5Y6
Konstantinovsky Irina officer: EVP, Chief Human Resources Off C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC CONNAUGHT HOUSE, 1ST FL, 1 BURLINGTON RD DUBLIN L2 4
Beeler Brian K officer: EVP, General Counsel C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 520 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Hoelscher Paul W. officer: EVP, CFO 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 520 C/O HORIZON PHARMA, INC. DEERFIELD IL 60062
Walbert Timothy P director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO 1033 SKOKIE BOULEVARD SUITE 355 NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Grey Michael G director C/O SGX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 10505 ROSELLE STREET SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Santini Gino director C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 1100 WINTER STREET WALTHAM MA 02451
Karnani Vikram officer: EVP & President, International C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC, CONNAUGHT HOUSE 1ST FLOOR, 1 BURLINGTON RD DUBLIN L2 4
Witz Pascale director C/O REGULUS THERAPEUTICS INC. 10614 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Shannon James Samuel director 28903 NORTH AVENUE PAINE VALENCIA CA 91355
Kent Jeff officer: See remarks C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC CONNAUGHT HOUSE, 1ST FL, 1 BURLINGTON RD DUBLIN L2 4
Moze Barry officer: EVP, Chief Admin. Officer C/O HORIZON PHARMA, INC. 520 EAST COOK ROAD, SUITE 520 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Mchugh Miles W officer: Sr VP & Princ. Acctg Officer C/O ACCRETIVE HEALTH, INC. 401 N. MICHIGAN AVE, SUITE 2700 CHICAGO IL 60611
Curtis Geoffrey M. officer: EVP, Corporate Affairs, CCO C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC CONNAUGHT HOUSE, 1ST FL, 1 BURLINGTON RD DUBLIN L2 L2 4

Horizon Therapeutics Headlines

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