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Illumina Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $33.57 (As of Mar22)
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As of Mar22, Illumina's earnings power value is $33.57. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -625.2

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Illumina Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Illumina's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Illumina Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 28.46 39.99 49.04 48.69 31.32

Illumina Quarterly Data
Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 52.60 55.68 29.41 31.32 33.57

Competitive Comparison

For the Diagnostics & Research subindustry, Illumina's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Illumina Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Medical Diagnostics & Research industry and Healthcare sector, Illumina's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Illumina's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Illumina Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Illumina's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 3,603
DDA 203
Operating Margin % 18.43
SGA * 25% 274
Tax Rate % 17.86
Maintenance Capex 200
Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,416
Short-Term Debt 571
Long-Term Debt 2,044
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 159

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 18.43%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $ Mil, Average Operating Margin = 18.43%, Average Adjusted SGA = 274,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 3,603 * 18.43% +274 = $937.5396 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 17.86%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $937.5396 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 937.5396 * ( 1 - 17.86% ) = $770.132529024 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 203 * 0.5 * 17.86% = $18.105984 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 770.132529024 + 18.105984 = $788.238513024 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Illumina's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $200 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Illumina's current cash and cash equivalent = $1,416 Mil.
Illumina's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 2,044 + 571 = $2615 Mil.
Illumina's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 159 Mil.

Illumina's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Mar22 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 788.238513024 - 200)/ 9%+1,416-2615 )/159
=33.57

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 33.568149058281-243.435 )/33.568149058281
= -625.2%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Illumina  (NAS:ILMN) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Illumina Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Illumina's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Illumina Business Description

Illumina logo
Industry
Address
5200 Illumina Way, San Diego, CA, USA, 92122
Illumina provides tools and services to analyze genetic material with life science and clinical lab applications. The company generates revenue from sequencing tools and dedicated consumables (76% of 2020 sales). Illumina's high-throughput technology enables whole genome sequencing in humans and other large organisms. Its lower throughput tools enable applications that require smaller data outputs, such as viral and cancer tumor screening. Illumina also sells microarrays (9% of sales) that enable lower-cost, focused genetic screening with primarily consumer and agricultural applications. Services account for 16% of sales and include basic maintenance services, clinical lab applications (such as noninvasive prenatal, oncology, and rare-disease screening), and whole genome sequencing.
Executives
Flatley Jay T director 9885 TOWNE CENTRE DR SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Tousi Susan H officer: SVP Product Development 5200 ILLUMINA WAY SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Reeves Kathryne Gambrell officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer 5200 ILLUMINA WAY SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Goswami Joydeep officer: SVP Corp Business Development SUMITOMO FUDOSAN MITA TWIN BLDG EAST WING 4-2-8 SHIBAURA MINATO-KU TOKYO M0 1080023
Dadswell Charles officer: SVP & General Counsel 5200 ILLUMINA WAY SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Desouza Francis A director, officer: President and CEO 350 ELLIS STREET MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Van Oene Mark officer: SVP Chief Commercial Officer 5200 ILLUMINA WAY SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Ragusa Robert P officer: SVP, Global Quality & Ops PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: RAGUSA ROBERT P a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Mcginnis Karen K officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer INSIGHT ENTERPRISES INC 1305 WEST AUTO DRIVE TEMPE AZ 85284
Hoyt Aimee L officer: SVP, Chief People Officer 5200 ILLUMINA WAY SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Ronaghi Mostafa officer: SVP, Entrepreneurial Devlopmt 9885 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Aravanis Alexander officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer 5200 ILLUMINA WAY SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Siegel Susan E director 3000 SAND HILL ROAD BLDG 3 STE 290 MENLO PARK CA 94025
Thompson John Wendell director C/O MICROSOFT CORPORATION ONE MICROSOFT WAY REDMOND WA 98053
Epstein Robert S director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: EPSTEIN ROBERT S a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

Illumina Headlines

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