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Incyte Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $26.93 (As of Jun22)
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As of Jun22, Incyte's earnings power value is $26.93. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -148.34

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Incyte Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Incyte's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Incyte Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 5.13 7.55 15.11 12.02 18.86

Incyte Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 14.05 16.57 18.86 23.65 26.93

Competitive Comparison

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Incyte's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Incyte Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Incyte's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Incyte's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Incyte Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Incyte's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 2,433
DDA 55
Operating Margin % 7.19
SGA * 25% 141
Tax Rate % -25.47
Maintenance Capex 88
Cash and Cash Equivalents 2,722
Short-Term Debt 12
Long-Term Debt 31
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 224

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 7.19%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $2,433 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 7.19%, Average Adjusted SGA = 141,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 2,433 * 7.19% +141 = $315.37031721 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = -25.47%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $315.37031721 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 315.37031721 * ( 1 - -25.47% ) = $395.67936848753 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 55 * 0.5 * -25.47% = $-7.051182105 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 395.67936848753 + -7.051182105 = $388.62818638253 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Incyte's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $88 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Incyte's current cash and cash equivalent = $2,722 Mil.
Incyte's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 31 + 12 = $43.562 Mil.
Incyte's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 224 Mil.

Incyte's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun22 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 388.62818638253 - 88)/ 9%+2,722-43.562 )/224
=26.93

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 26.934336457731-66.89 )/26.934336457731
= -148.34%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Incyte  (NAS:INCY) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Incyte Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Incyte's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Incyte Business Description

Incyte logo
Industry
Address
1801 Augustine Cut-Off, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19803
Incyte focuses on the discovery and development of small-molecule drugs. The firm's lead drug, Jakafi, treats two types of rare blood cancer and graft versus host disease and is partnered with Novartis. Incyte's other marketed drugs include rheumatoid arthritis treatment Olumiant (licensed to Lilly), and oncology drugs Iclusig (chronic myeloid leukemia), Pemazyre (cholangiocarcinoma), Tabrecta (lung cancer), and Monjuvi (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma). The firm's first dermatology product, Opzelura, was approved in 2021 for atopic dermatitis. Incyte's pipeline includes a broad array of oncology and dermatology programs.
Executives
Tray Thomas officer: Principal Accounting Officer C/O INCYTE CORPORATION 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF WILMINGTON DE 19803
Brawley Otis W director 5203 BRISTOL INDUSTRIAL WAY BUFORD GA 30518
High Katherine A director 3737 MARKET STREET SUITE 1300 PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Harrigan Edmund director
Morrissey Michael James officer: EVP, Head of Tech. Operations IN CARE OF INCYTE CORPORATION 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT OFF WILMINGTON DE 19803
Dickinson Jonathan Elliott officer: EVP, General Manager, Europe CARE OF INCYTE CORPORATION 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT OFF WILMINGTON DE 19803
Stamoulis Christiana officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED 130 WAVERLY ST CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Dhanak Dashyant officer: EVP & Chief Scientific Officer C/O INCYTE CORPORATION 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF WILMINGTON DE 19803
Pasquale Maria E officer: EVP & General Counsel C/O INCYTE CORPORATION 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF WILMINGTON DE 19803
Fouse Jacqualyn A director C/O DICK'S SPORTING GOODS 345 COURT STREET CORAOPOLIS PA 15108
Iyengar Vijay K officer: EVP GPS, BD, & Licensing 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF WILMINGTON DE 19803
Stein Steven H officer: EVP & Chief Medical Officer 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF WILMINGTON DE 19803
Trower Paul officer: VP, Finance & Prin Acc Officer 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF WILMINGTON DE 19803
Clancy Paul J director C/O BIOGEN IDEC INC. 14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Bienaime Jean Jacques director 925 PAGE MILL ROAD PALO ALTO CA 94304

Incyte Headlines

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