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Cardinal Health Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $82.05 (As of Sep21)
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As of Sep21, Cardinal Health's earnings power value is $82.05. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is 42.69

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Cardinal Health Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Cardinal Health's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Cardinal Health Annual Data
Trend Jun12 Jun13 Jun14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 52.48 55.62 68.25 76.92 81.37

Cardinal Health Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 74.90 81.84 79.11 81.37 82.05

Competitive Comparison

For the Medical Distribution subindustry, Cardinal Health's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Cardinal Health Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Medical Distribution industry and Healthcare sector, Cardinal Health's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cardinal Health's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Cardinal Health Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Cardinal Health's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 147,927
DDA 888
Operating Margin % 1.28
SGA * 25% 1,107
Tax Rate % 11.07
Maintenance Capex 295
Cash and Cash Equivalents 2,463
Short-Term Debt 301
Long-Term Debt 5,353
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 289

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 1.28%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $ Mil, Average Operating Margin = 1.28%, Average Adjusted SGA = 1,107,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 147,927 * 1.28% +1,107 = $2998.701809 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 11.07%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $2998.701809 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 2998.701809 * ( 1 - 11.07% ) = $2666.7155317256 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 888 * 0.5 * 11.07% = $49.15524 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 2666.7155317256 + 49.15524 = $2715.8707717256 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Cardinal Health's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $295 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Cardinal Health's current cash and cash equivalent = $2,463 Mil.
Cardinal Health's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 5,353 + 301 = $5654 Mil.
Cardinal Health's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 289 Mil.

Cardinal Health's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Sep21 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 2715.8707717256 - 295)/ 9%+2,463-5654 )/289
=82.05

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 82.047603680339-47.02 )/82.047603680339
= 42.69%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Cardinal Health  (NYSE:CAH) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Cardinal Health Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cardinal Health's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Cardinal Health Business Description

Cardinal Health logo
Industry
Healthcare » Medical Distribution NAICS : 424210 SIC : 5122
Address
7000 Cardinal Place, Dublin, OH, USA, 43017
Cardinal Health is the third- largest global logistics provider engaged in wholesale pharmaceutical and medical products. Similar to its closest two peers, the company has evolved over time and has become entrenched in the sourcing and distribution of brand-name and generic pharmaceuticals and related services to hospitals, healthcare systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories, and physician offices. Through acquisitions, Cardinal Health has the ability to manufacture commodity products and certain medical devices.
Executives
Losh J Michael director H.B. FULLER COMPANY P.O. BOX 64683 ST. PAUL MN 55164-0683
Scarborough Dean A director 150 N. ORANGE GROVE BLVD PASADENA CA 91103
Snow Ola M officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Edison Sheri H. director 1069 STATE ROUTE 46 EAST BATESVILLE IN 47006
English Patricia M officer: Chief Accounting Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Mason Stephen M officer: CEO, Medical Segment 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Mayer Jessica L officer: Chief Legal/Compliance Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Rice Brian S officer: Chief Information Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Holcomb Michele officer: EVP - Strategy & Corp. Dev. 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Hollar Jason M. officer: Chief Financial Officer 3333 BEVERLY ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Kaufmann Michael C director, officer: CEO 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Crawford Victor L. officer: CEO, Pharmaceutical Segment C/O THE PEPSI BOTTLING GROUP, INC. ONE PEPSI WAY SOMERS NY 10589
Laws Stuart G officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer CARDINAL HEALTH, INC. 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Evans David C director C/O THE SCOTTS MIRACLE-GRO COMPANY 14111 SCOTTSLAWN ROAD MARYSVILLE OH 43041
Darden Calvin director 11235 STROUP ROAD ROSWELL GA 30075

Cardinal Health Headlines

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