GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » USA » NYSE » Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) » Definitions » Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Switch to:

Caterpillar Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $23.33 (As of Jun22)
View and export this data going back to 1929. Start your Free Trial

As of Jun22, Caterpillar's earnings power value is $23.33. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -669.86

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Caterpillar Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Caterpillar's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Caterpillar Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -26.95 -20.12 -9.04 3.99 21.87

Caterpillar Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 15.27 18.33 21.87 21.60 23.33

Competitive Comparison

For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery subindustry, Caterpillar's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Caterpillar Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry and Industrials sector, Caterpillar's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Caterpillar's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Caterpillar Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Caterpillar's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 50,677
DDA 2,537
Operating Margin % 13.56
SGA * 25% 1,303
Tax Rate % 32.81
Maintenance Capex 2,002
Cash and Cash Equivalents 6,014
Short-Term Debt 10,743
Long-Term Debt 26,219
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 534

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 13.56%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $50,677 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 13.56%, Average Adjusted SGA = 1,303,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 50,677 * 13.56% +1,303 = $8174.681706 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 32.81%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $8174.681706 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 8174.681706 * ( 1 - 32.81% ) = $5492.3233978102 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 2,537 * 0.5 * 32.81% = $416.200092 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 5492.3233978102 + 416.200092 = $5908.5234898102 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Caterpillar's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $2,002 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Caterpillar's current cash and cash equivalent = $6,014 Mil.
Caterpillar's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 26,219 + 10,743 = $36962 Mil.
Caterpillar's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 534 Mil.

Caterpillar's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun22 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 5908.5234898102 - 2,002)/ 9%+6,014-36962 )/534
=23.33

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 23.332748545013-179.63 )/23.332748545013
= -669.86%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Caterpillar  (NYSE:CAT) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Caterpillar Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Caterpillar's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Caterpillar Business Description

Caterpillar logo
Address
510 Lake Cook Road, Suite 100, Deerfield, IL, USA, 60015
Caterpillar is an iconic manufacturer of heavy equipment, power solutions, and locomotives. It is currently the world's largest manufacturer of heavy equipment with over 13% market share in 2021. The company is divided into four reportable segments: construction industries, resource industries, energy and transportation, and Caterpillar Financial Services. Its products are available through a dealer network that covers the globe with over 2,000 branches maintained by 168 dealers. Caterpillar Financial Services provides retail financing for machinery and engines to its customers, in addition to wholesale financing for dealers, which increases the likelihood of Caterpillar product sales.
Executives
Schaupp William E officer: Chief Accounting Officer PPG INDUSTRIES, INC. ONE PPG PLACE PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Maclennan David director 14701 CHARLSON ROAD EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Johnson Gerald director 300 RENAISSANCE CENTER M/C: 482-C23-A68 DETROIT MI 48265
Fassino Anthony D. officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Marvel Gary Michael officer: Chief Accounting Officer 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Ainsworth William P officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD X1 60015
Bonfield Andrew R J officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO 345 PARK AVE NEW YORK NY 10164
Younessi Ramin officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Creed Joseph E officer: Interim CFO 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Ayotte Kelly director C/O NEWS CORPORATION 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Johnson Cheryl H officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 40 WESTMINSTER STREET PROVIDENCE RI 02903
Wilkins Rayford Jr director 208 S. AKARD ST. -- DALLAS TX 75202
Long Suzette M officer: Int. Executive Vice President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFILED IL 60015
De Lange Bob officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Johnson Denise C officer: Group President C/O CATERPILLAR, INCORPORATED 901 WEST WASHINGTON, CV41110 EAST PEORIA IL 61630

Caterpillar Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)