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Chubb Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $181.24 (As of Jun22)
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As of Jun22, Chubb's earnings power value is $181.24. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Chubb Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Chubb's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Chubb Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Chubb Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, Chubb's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Chubb Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Chubb's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Chubb's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Chubb Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Chubb's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 36,019
DDA 299
Operating Margin % 0.00
SGA * 25% 754
Tax Rate % 16.13
Maintenance Capex 0
Cash and Cash Equivalents 92,622
Short-Term Debt 1,474
Long-Term Debt 14,311
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 425

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 0.00%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $36,019 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 0.00%, Average Adjusted SGA = 754,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 36,019 * 0.00% +754 = $ Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 16.13%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $ Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = * ( 1 - 16.13% ) = $0 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 299 * 0.5 * 16.13% = $24.091497 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 0 + 24.091497 = $24.091497 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Chubb's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $0 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Chubb's current cash and cash equivalent = $92,622 Mil.
Chubb's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 14,311 + 1,474 = $15785 Mil.
Chubb's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 425 Mil.

Chubb's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun22 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 24.091497 - 0)/ 9%+92,622-15785 )/425
=181.24

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 181.24452491432-179.335 )/181.24452491432
= 1.05%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Chubb  (NYSE:CB) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Chubb Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Chubb's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Chubb Business Description

Chubb logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Baerengasse 32, Zurich, CHE, CH-8001
ACE acquired Chubb in the first quarter of 2016 and assumed the Chubb name. The combination makes the new Chubb one of the largest domestic property and casualty insurers, with operations in 54 countries spanning commercial and personal P&C insurance, reinsurance, and life insurance.
Executives
Bonanno Kathleen director 3000 TANNERY WAY SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Enns Peter C. officer: Executive Vice President and* THE CHUBB BUILDING 17 WOODBOURNE AVENUE HAMILTON D0 HM 08
Tellez Luis director DESC, S.A. DE C.V PASEO DE LOS TAMARINDOS TORRE PISO 32 CUAJIMALPA O5 05120
Townsend Frances F director C/O BAKER BOTTS LLP THE WARNER, 1299 PENNSYLVANIA AVE., NW WASHINGTON DC 20004-2400
Hugin Robert J director C/O THE MEDICINES CO 8 CAMPUS DR PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Hagan Annmarie T officer: Chief Accounting Officer TWO LIBERTY PLACE 1601 CHESTNUT STREET PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Ortega Juan Luis officer: Executive Vice President* CHUBB AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Andrade Juan C officer: Executive Vice President* THE HARTFORD ONE HARTFORD PLAZA HARTFORD CT 06155
Krump Paul J officer: Executive Vice President* C/O CHUBB & SON 15 MOUNTAIN VIEW RD P O BOX161 WARREN NJ 07061-1615
Kellner Lawrence W director 1600 SMITH ST. HQSEO HOUSTON TX 77002
Zimmerman James M director C/O FOSSIL GROUP, INC. 901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY RICHARDSON TX 75080
Cash James I director C/O WINSTAR COMMUNICATIONS INC 685 THIRD AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10017
Burke Sheila P director WELLPOINT, INC 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Sidwell David H director MORGAN STANLEY 1585 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10036
Edwardson John A director P O BOX 66100-WHQLD CHICAGO IL 60666

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