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China Green Agriculture Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $-13.60 (As of Sep21)
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As of Sep21, China Green Agriculture's earnings power value is $-13.60. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


China Green Agriculture Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for China Green Agriculture's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

China Green Agriculture Annual Data
Trend Jun12 Jun13 Jun14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 190.22 129.60 84.20 14.02 -9.78

China Green Agriculture Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 5.92 -3.36 -8.05 -9.78 -13.60

Competitive Comparison

For the Agricultural Inputs subindustry, China Green Agriculture's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

China Green Agriculture Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Agriculture industry and Basic Materials sector, China Green Agriculture's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Green Agriculture's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



China Green Agriculture Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

China Green Agriculture's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 258.7
DDA 6.1
Operating Margin % -20.63
SGA * 25% 24.0
Tax Rate % 54.44
Maintenance Capex 0.2
Cash and Cash Equivalents 22.0
Short-Term Debt 5.3
Long-Term Debt 0.0
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 8.5

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = -20.63%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $ Mil, Average Operating Margin = -20.63%, Average Adjusted SGA = 24.0,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 258.7 * -20.63% +24.0 = $-29.32191208 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 54.44%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $-29.32191208 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = -29.32191208 * ( 1 - 54.44% ) = $-13.358623314967 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 6.1 * 0.5 * 54.44% = $1.6519184345 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = -13.358623314967 + 1.6519184345 = $-11.706704880467 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
China Green Agriculture's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $0.2 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. China Green Agriculture's current cash and cash equivalent = $22.0 Mil.
China Green Agriculture's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 0.0 + 5.3 = $5.273 Mil.
China Green Agriculture's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 8.5 Mil.

China Green Agriculture's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Sep21 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( -11.706704880467 - 0.2)/ 9%+22.0-5.273 )/8.5
=-13.60

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -13.598550738908-10.43 )/-13.598550738908
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


China Green Agriculture  (NYSE:CGA) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


China Green Agriculture Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of China Green Agriculture's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


China Green Agriculture Business Description

China Green Agriculture logo
Industry
Basic Materials » Agriculture NAICS : 325320 SIC : 2879
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
South Taibai Road, 3rd Floor, Borough A, Block A. No. 181, Shaanxi Province, Xi’an, CHN, 710065
China Green Agriculture Inc is engaged in the business of fertilizer and agricultural products. It involves the research, development, production, distribution, and sale of humic acid-based compound fertilizer, blended fertilizer, organic compound fertilizer, slow-release fertilizers, concentrated water-soluble fertilizers, and mixed organic-inorganic compound fertilizer and the development, production, and distribution of agricultural products, such as top-grade fruits, vegetables, flowers and colored seedlings in China. The company operates in four segments: Fertilizer products (Jinong), Fertilizer products (Gufeng), agricultural products (Yuxing), and Sales VIEs(variable interest entities). All of its operations are conducted in China.
Executives
Shi Yiru director 1217 S CATALINA AVENUE REDONDO BEACH CA 90277
Shen Jianlei director 3RD FLOOR, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A. NO. 181 SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD XI?AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 PRC 710065
Fan Ale director 3RD FLOOR, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A. NO. 181 SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD XI?AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 PRC 710065
Zhang Yizhao director 45 OLD MILLSTONE DRIVE, NIT 6 EAST WINDSOR NJ 08520
Fields Robert B director 215 EAST 68TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10021
Raeburn Barry L director C/O FUSHI INTERNATIONAL INC. 1 SHUANGQIANG ROAD, JINZHOU DALIAN F4 116100
To Yinshing David 10 percent owner 45 OLD MILLSTONE DR, UNIT 6 EAST WINDSOR NJ 08520
Schwartz Sanford other: Former Officer & 10% Owner 5353 MANHATTAN CIRCLE STE 101 BOULDER CO 80303
Friess Michael other: Former Officer & 10% Owner 5353 MANHATTAN CIRCLE STE 101 BOULDER CO 80303
Venette John H director, officer: CFO & Treasurer 5353 MANHATTAN CIRCLE SUITE 101 BOULDER CO 80303
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