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Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $-46.73 (As of Jun21)
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As of Jun21, Chipotle Mexican Grill's earnings power value is $-46.73. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 85.05 86.96 79.95 -23.20 -64.98

Chipotle Mexican Grill Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -60.34 -63.82 -64.98 -51.30 -46.73

Competitive Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Chipotle Mexican Grill's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 5,324
DDA 294
Operating Margin % 6.74
SGA * 25% 102
Tax Rate % 36.91
Maintenance Capex 252
Cash and Cash Equivalents 991
Short-Term Debt 214
Long-Term Debt 3,135
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 29

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 6.74%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $ Mil, Average Operating Margin = 6.74%, Average Adjusted SGA = 102,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 5,324 * 6.74% +102 = $460.31403696 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 36.91%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $460.31403696 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 460.31403696 * ( 1 - 36.91% ) = $290.4213321988 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 294 * 0.5 * 36.91% = $54.303626192 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 290.4213321988 + 54.303626192 = $344.7249583908 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Chipotle Mexican Grill's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $252 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Chipotle Mexican Grill's current cash and cash equivalent = $991 Mil.
Chipotle Mexican Grill's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 3,135 + 214 = $3348.201 Mil.
Chipotle Mexican Grill's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 29 Mil.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun21 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 344.7249583908 - 252)/ 9%+991-3348.201 )/29
=-46.73

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -46.726322120938-1792.21 )/-46.726322120938
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Chipotle Mexican Grill  (NYSE:CMG) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

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Chipotle Mexican Grill Business Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants NAICS : 722513 SIC : 5812
Address
610 Newport Center Drive, Suite 1300, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660
Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales approaching $6 billion in 2020. The Mexican concept is entirely company-owned, with a footprint of 2,850 stores heavily indexed to the United States, though the firm maintains a small presence in Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany. Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.
Executives
Engles Gregg L director 1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET SUITE 1000 DENVER CO 80202
Winston Mary A director 557 BROADWAY C/O SCHOLASTIC CORP NEW YORK NY 10012
Niccol Brian R director, officer: Chairman, CEO 1 GLEN BELL WAY IRVINE CA 92618
Baldocchi Albert S director 1601 HIGH STREET BOULDER CO 80304
Boatwright Scott officer: Chief Restaurant Officer 1401 WYNKOOP STREET SUITE 500 DENVER CO 80202
Pringle Robin S director 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Maw Scott Harlan director 1411 E. MISSION AVENUE SPOKANE WA 99202
Paull Matthew H director MCDONALDS CORP 2915 JORIE BLVD OAK BROOK IL 60523
Flanzraich Neil director 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD MIAMI FL 33137
Cappuccio Paul T director TIME WARNER INC. ONE TIME WARNER CENTER NEW YORK NY 10019
Filikrushel Patricia director DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION 100 MISSION RIDGE GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Namvar Ali director C/O PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Garner Curtis E officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O AEROHIVE NETWORKS, INC. 330 GIBRALTAR DRIVE SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Andrada Marissa officer: Chief People Officer C/O KATE SPADE & COMPANY 2 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10016
Schalow Laurie officer: Chief Corp Reputation Officer 610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE SUITE 1300 NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660

Chipotle Mexican Grill Headlines

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