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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $-6.44 (As of Jun21)
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As of Jun21, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's earnings power value is $-6.44. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -8.13 -6.84 -7.42 -11.49 -8.89

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -12.12 -9.21 -8.89 -7.72 -6.44

Competitive Comparison

For the Trucking subindustry, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 4,079
DDA 387
Operating Margin % 10.83
SGA * 25% 46
Tax Rate % 11.50
Maintenance Capex 505
Cash and Cash Equivalents 179
Short-Term Debt 105
Long-Term Debt 581
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 167

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 10.83%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $ Mil, Average Operating Margin = 10.83%, Average Adjusted SGA = 46,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 4,079 * 10.83% +46 = $487.40321185 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 11.50%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $487.40321185 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 487.40321185 * ( 1 - 11.50% ) = $431.35915353543 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 387 * 0.5 * 11.50% = $22.2252091815 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 431.35915353543 + 22.2252091815 = $453.58436271693 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $505 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's current cash and cash equivalent = $179 Mil.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 581 + 105 = $686.029 Mil.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 167 Mil.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun21 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 453.58436271693 - 505)/ 9%+179-686.029 )/167
=-6.44

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -6.444615680555-52.08 )/-6.444615680555
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings  (NYSE:KNX) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Business Description

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings logo
Industry
Industrials » Transportation NAICS : 484121 SIC : 4213
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20002 North 19th Avenue, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85027
Knight-Swift Transportation is by far the largest asset-based full-truckload carrier in the United States. About 80% of revenue derives from asset-based truckload shipping operations (including for-hire dry van, refrigerated, and dedicated contract). The remainder stems from truck brokerage and other asset-light logistics services (8%), as well as intermodal (8%), which uses the Class-I railroads for the underlying movement of the firm's shipping containers and also offers drayage services.
Executives
Moyes Vickie 10 percent owner SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Moyes Jerry 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% group SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Moyes Jerry & Vickie Family Trust 10 percent owner SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Garnreiter Michael director 6735 E. GREENWAY PARKWAY UNIT #2049 SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
Nester Lyndee Moyes other: Member of 10% owner group PO BOX 1397 TOLLESON AZ 85353
Moyes Michael other: Member of 10% owner group SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Breen Shannon officer: Sr. VP Logistics/Intermodal 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85027
Flanagan Cary M officer: SVP and CAO SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Harrington Timothy Sean officer: Exec Vice Pres Sales 2200 NORTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85027
Knight Gary J director, officer: Vice Chairman PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: KNIGHT GARY J a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Knight Kevin P director, officer: Executive Chairman 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Liu Michael K officer: Exec. VP of Ops, Knight Trans 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Jackson David A director, officer: President and CEO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: JACKSON DAVID A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Yu Wayne officer: CAO of Knight Trans. Inc. 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Carlson Todd F. officer: General Counsel and Secretary 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Headlines

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