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Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $-15.50 (As of Sep22)
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As of Sep22, Exxon Mobil's earnings power value is $-15.50. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Exxon Mobil Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -12.92 -10.97 -15.58 -48.00 -28.52

Exxon Mobil Quarterly Data
Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -36.60 -28.52 -27.91 -20.87 -15.50

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Competitive Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Exxon Mobil Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Exxon Mobil's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 272,201
DDA 25,835
Operating Margin % 3.41
SGA * 25% 2,642
Tax Rate % -0.15
Maintenance Capex 16,406
Cash and Cash Equivalents 30,407
Short-Term Debt 6,182
Long-Term Debt 39,246
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 4,185

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 3.41%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $272,201 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 3.41%, Average Adjusted SGA = 2,642,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 272,201 * 3.41% +2,642 = $11919.914268 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = -0.15%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $11919.914268 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 11919.914268 * ( 1 - -0.15% ) = $11938.032537687 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 25,835 * 0.5 * -0.15% = $-19.634904 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 11938.032537687 + -19.634904 = $11918.397633687 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Exxon Mobil's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $16,406 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Exxon Mobil's current cash and cash equivalent = $30,407 Mil.
Exxon Mobil's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 39,246 + 6,182 = $45428 Mil.
Exxon Mobil's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 4,185 Mil.

Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Sep22 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 11918.397633687 - 16,406)/ 9%+30,407-45428 )/4,185
=-15.50

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -15.50492517274-109.86 )/-15.50492517274
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Exxon Mobil  (NYSE:XOM) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Exxon Mobil Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Business Description

Exxon Mobil logo
Industry
Address
5959 Las Colinas Boulevard, Irving, TX, USA, 75039-2298
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil around the world. In 2021, it produced 2.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2021, reserves were 18.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 66% of which were liquids. The company is the world's largest refiner with a total global refining capacity of 4.6 million barrels of oil per day and one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Executives
Talley Darrin L officer: Vice President 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Ubben Jeffrey W director 1170 GORGAS AVENUE SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Mikells Kathryn A officer: Senior Vice President 77 W. WACKER DRIVE CHICAGO IL 60601
Karsner Alexander director C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC. 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039 SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Goff Gregory James director 19100 RIDGEWOOD PARKWAY SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Hietala Kaisa director 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD TX 75039-2298
Gibbs Jon M. officer: Executive Officer 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Fox Leonard M. officer: Vice President and Controller 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Angelakis Michael J director 40 MORRIS AVENUE BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Zulkiflee Wan director 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Morford Craig S officer: Vice President & Gen. Counsel CARDINAL HEALTH, INC. 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Carr Ian S officer: Vice President 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Littleton Stephen A officer: Vice President and Secretary 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD IRVING TX 75039-2298
Hooley Joseph L director STATE STREET CORPORATION ONE LINCOLN STREET BOSTON MA 02111
Mckee Karen T officer: Vice President 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD IRVING TX 75039-2298

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Headlines

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