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Coty (NYSE:COTY) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.04% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Coty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison

For the Household & Personal Products subindustry, Coty's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   
Coty Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Coty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Coty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Probability of Financial Distress (%)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.


Coty Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.86

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Coty  (NYSE:COTY) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Coty Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Coty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Coty (NYSE:COTY) Business Description

Coty logo
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Coty Inc (NYSE:COTY) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Comparable Companies
NAS:HELE NYSE:SPB NYSE:NUS NAS:IPAR NAS:NWL NAS:SKIN NYSE:EPC NYSE:ELF OTCPK:EOSS NAS:EWCZ NYSE:PG XPAR:OR LSE:ULVR NYSE:EL BOM:500696 NYSE:CL LSE:RKT NYSE:KMB XTER:HEN3 XTER:BEI
Traded in Other Exchanges
CO3A:Germany COTY34:Brazil
Address
350 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10118
Website
https://www.coty.com
Coty Inc is a global beauty firm that sells fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin and body care. It licenses brands such as Calvin Klein, Hugo Boss, Gucci, Burberry, and Davidoff for its prestige portfolio. Coty's most popular color cosmetic brands are CoverGirl, Max Factor, Rimmel, Sally Hansen, and Kylie. Coty also holds a minority stake in a salon and retail haircare business, including brands Wella, Clairol, OPI, and GHD. The company has two reportable segments such as Prestige and Consumer Beauty. It generates majority of its revenue from Prestige segment.
Executives
Priya Srinivasan officer: Chief People & Purpose Officer 350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Rochet Lubomira director 6425 HALL OF FAME LANE, FRISCO TX 75034
Laurent Mercier officer: Chief Financial Officer 350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Anna Adeola Makanju director 350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Maria Asunicion Aramburuzabala director PASEO DE LOS TAMARINDOS 400, TORRE B PISO 25, MEXICO DF O5 0000
Johannes P Huth director
Sue Nabi director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Bayern Anna Von officer: Chief Corp. Affairs Officer 350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Nancy G. Ford director C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
George R Roberts 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Kkr Rainbow Aggregator L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kkr Rainbow Aggregator Gp Llc 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kkr Europe V S.a R.l. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kkr Associates Europe V Scsp 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kkr Europe V Holdings Ltd 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019