What is International Shipholding Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, International Shipholding's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 100.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of International Shipholding's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Marine Shipping subindustry, International Shipholding's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
International Shipholding's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, International Shipholding's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where International Shipholding's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
International Shipholding Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 22.67 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 100.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
International Shipholding Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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International Shipholding Corp was originally founded as Central Gulf Steamship Corporation in 1947. Central Gulf was privately held until 1971 when it merged with Trans Union Corporation ("Trans Union"). In 1978, International Shipholding Corporation was formed to act as a holding company for Central Gulf, LCI, and certain other affiliated companies in connection with the 1979 spin off by Trans Union of its common stock to Trans Union's stockholders. Through its subsidiaries, it operates a fleet of U.S. and International Flag vessels that provide international and domestic maritime transportation services to commercial and governmental customers under medium to long-term time charters or contracts of affreightment. As of December 31, 2014 it owned or operated 54 ocean-going vessels. Its segments include Jones Act, Pure Car Truck Carriers, Dry Bulk Carriers, Rail-Ferry, Specialty Contracts, and Other. Its Rail-Ferry segment faces competition from companies who transport cargo over land rather than water including railroads and trucking companies that cross land borders. The Company's operations between the United States and foreign countries are subject to the Shipping Act of 1984, which is administered by the Federal Maritime Commission, and certain provisions of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, the Act to Prevent Pollution from Ships, and the Comprehensive Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act, all of which are administered by the U.S. Coast Guard and other federal agencies, and certain other international, federal, state, and local laws and regulations, including international conventions and laws and regulations of the flag nations of its vessels.
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