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Forrester Research Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.01% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Forrester Research's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Consulting Services subindustry, Forrester Research's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Forrester Research Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Forrester Research's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Forrester Research's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Forrester Research Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-9.12

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Forrester Research  (NAS:FORR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Forrester Research Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Forrester Research's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Forrester Research Business Description

Forrester Research logo
Industry
Industrials » Business Services NAICS : 541910 SIC : 8732
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
60 Acorn Park Drive, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02140
Forrester Research Inc is a United-States-based company that provides independent research, data, and advisory services. It operates through the following segments: The Research segment develops and delivers research, connect, and analytics products; The consulting segment includes the revenues and the related costs of the company's consulting organization, and the Events segment is engaged in developing and hosting in-person and virtual events.
Executives
Peltzman Steven P. officer: CBTO C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Bradford Neil director C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH INC 400 TECHNOLOGY SQ CAMBRIDGE MA 02129
Johnson Carrie officer: Chief Research Officer C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Teichgraeber Gretchen director C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Doyle Michael A officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O EASYLINK SERVICES CORPORATION 33 KNIGHTSBRIDGE ROAD PISCATAWAY NJ 08854
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Boyce David director C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Wassenaar Yvonne director C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Friscia Anthony J director C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Galford Robert director C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE CAMBRIDGE MA 02139

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