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Lululemon Athletica Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.10% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Lululemon Athletica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Apparel Retail subindustry, Lululemon Athletica's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Lululemon Athletica Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Lululemon Athletica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Lululemon Athletica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Lululemon Athletica Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.94

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.10%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Lululemon Athletica  (NAS:LULU) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Lululemon Athletica Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Lululemon Athletica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Lululemon Athletica Business Description

Lululemon Athletica logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical NAICS : 315990 SIC : 2399
Address
1818 Cornwall Avenue, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6J 1C7
Lululemon Athletica Inc. designs, distributes, and markets athletic apparel and accessories for women, men, and girls. Lululemon offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for both leisure and athletic activities such as yoga and running. The company also sells fitness accessories, such as bags, yoga mats, and equipment. Lululemon sells its products through more than 550 company-owned stores in 17 countries, e-commerce, outlets, and wholesale accounts. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Executives
Wilson Dennis J. other: Director by deputization C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Choe Michelle Sun officer: Chief Product Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Mcdonald Calvin director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Burgoyne Celeste officer: EVP Americas Retail C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Casey Martin Michael director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: CASEY MARTIN MICHAEL a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Morfitt Martha A M director P.O. BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
White Emily director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Patrick Tricia director C/O ADVENT INERNATIONAL CORPORATION PRUDENTIAL TOWER, 800 BOYLSTON STREET BOSTON MA 02199
Mussafer David M director C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL CORP 75 STATE ST 29TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02104
Mcneill Jon director 45500 FREMONT BLVD FREMONT CA 94538
Ferris Stephanie director C/O VANTIV, INC. 8500 GOVERNORS HILL DRIVE CINCINNATI OH 45249
Murphy Glenn director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J1C7
Henry Kathryn director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA, INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Guido Patrick J. officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP 2905 PREMIERE PKWY, STE 300 DULUTH 2Q 30097
Neuburger Nicole officer: Chief Brand Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7

Lululemon Athletica Headlines

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