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Shoe Carnival Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.00% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Shoe Carnival's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Apparel Retail subindustry, Shoe Carnival's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Shoe Carnival Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Shoe Carnival's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shoe Carnival's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Shoe Carnival Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-10.28

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Shoe Carnival  (NAS:SCVL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Shoe Carnival Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Shoe Carnival's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Shoe Carnival Business Description

Shoe Carnival logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical NAICS : 448210 SIC : 5661
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
7500 East Columbia Street, Evansville, IN, USA, 47715
Shoe Carnival Inc is a footwear retailer with hundreds of stores in the United States. It offers moderately priced, name-brand dress, casual, and athletic footwear for men, women, and children. Its average store has more than 27,000 pairs of shoes. The company promotes a shopping experience that includes contests, games, and a person on a stage with a microphone to announce limited-time specials. To enable its value-pricing strategy, Shoe Carnival minimizes staffing needs by housing all merchandise on the selling floor and leases store locations in open-air shopping centers. The company buys its merchandise from hundreds of vendors, with Nike and Skechers accounting for a substantial portion of total company sales. All merchandise goes through the company's distribution center in Indiana.
Executives
Sifford Clifton E director, officer: VICE CHAIRMAN & CEO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SIFFORD CLIFTON E a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Baker Timothy T officer: EXEC. VP - CHIEF RETAIL PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BAKER TIMOTHY T a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Tomm Charles B. director 201 N. FRANKLIN STREET SUITE 2800 TAMPA FL 33602
Scibetta Carl N. officer: EVP - CHIEF MERCHANDISE OFF. 7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Kleeberger Kent A director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: KLEEBERGER KENT A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Aschleman James A director 300 N MERIDIAN ST STE 2700 INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Wood Joseph W director 4896 DEER RIDGE DRIVE SOUTH CARMEL IN 46033
Guthrie Andrea R. director 7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Jackson W Kerry officer: SENIOR EVP - CFO & CAO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: JACKSON W KERRY a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Worden Mark J. officer: PRESIDENT & CHIEF CUSTOMER OFF 7500 E. COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Weaver Wayne J director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD TWO STAMFORD PLAZA 281 TRESSER BLVD P O BOX 1214 STAMFORD CT 06904-1214
Weaver Delores B 10 percent owner TWO STAMFORD PLAZA 281 TRESSER BLVD P O BOX 1214 STAMFORD CT 06904-1214
Gerstel Jeffrey C director 933 MACARTHUR BOULEVARD MAHWAH NJ 07430
Yearwood Kathy A officer: SVP CONTROLLER/PAO 7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Schoor Gerald W director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SCHOOR GERALD W a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

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