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Invesco Mortgage Capital Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.23% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Invesco Mortgage Capital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.23%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the REIT - Mortgage subindustry, Invesco Mortgage Capital's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Invesco Mortgage Capital Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Invesco Mortgage Capital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Invesco Mortgage Capital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Invesco Mortgage Capital Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.05

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.23%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Cash and cash equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Invesco Mortgage Capital  (NYSE:IVR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Invesco Mortgage Capital Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Invesco Mortgage Capital Business Description

Invesco Mortgage Capital logo
Industry
Real Estate » REITs NAICS : 531190 SIC : 6798
Address
1555 Peachtree Street, N.E., Suite 1800, Two Peachtree Pointe, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30309
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is an REIT that invests, finances, and manages residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans. The company's portfolio consists of residential mortgage-backed securities for which a U.S. government agency or a federally chartered corporation guarantees payment of principal and interest, or Agency RMBS; residential mortgage-backed securities that are not issued or guaranteed by an agency, or nonagency RMBS; commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS; and residential and commercial mortgage loans. The asset manager for the company is Invesco Advisers, a subsidiary of Invesco.
Executives
Hardin Edward J director 5430 LBJ FREEWAY SUIT 1700 DALLAS TX 75240
Lockhart Dennis P director 100 GOLF ROAD GOLF IL 60029
Handlon Carolyn B director 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Day John director 1520 OLD TROLLEY ROAD SUMMERVILLE SC 29485
Lientz James R Jr director GEORGIA POSER CO BIN 10240 241 RALPH MCGILL BLVD ATLANTA GA 30308
Starr Loren M director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: STARR LOREN M a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Lyle David B officer: Chief Operating Officer 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Collins Kevin M officer: President 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Clemente Mario other: Officer of Manager 1555 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Norris Brian officer: CIO 1555 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Phegley Richard Lee Jr. officer: Chief Financial Officer 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Anzalone John officer: CEO INVESCO LTD. 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE ATLANTA GA 30309
Perlis Roseann officer: Chief Accounting Officer 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Morris Sheri officer: Chief Investment Officer INVESCO LTD., 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE SUITE 100 ATLANTA GA 30309
Marshall Jason officer: Chief Investment Officer 1555 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309

Invesco Mortgage Capital Headlines

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