GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » USA » NYSE » Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Switch to:

Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.05% (As of Today)
View and export this data going back to 1962. Start your Free Trial

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Banks - Diversified subindustry, Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.57

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.05%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Cash and cash equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Wells Fargo  (NYSE:WFC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Wells Fargo Business Description

Wells Fargo logo
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Address
420 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94104
Wells Fargo is one of the largest banks in the United States, with approximately $1.9 trillion in balance sheet assets. The company is split into four primary segments: consumer banking, commercial banking, corporate and investment banking, and wealth and investment management. It is almost entirely focused on the U.S.
Executives
Davis Richard K director 800 NICOLLET MALL MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Norwood Felicia F director 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Morken Cecelia director 26025 MUREAU ROAD CALABASAS CA 91302
Ling Bei officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001
Hranicky Kyle G officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 1000 LOUISIANA STREET HOUSTON TX 77002
Santos Kleber officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 1680 CAPITAL ONE DRIVE MCLEAN VA 22102
Williams Ather Iii officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001
Santomassimo Michael P. officer: Sr. EVP & CFO 225 LIBERTY STREET NEW YORK NY 10286
Chancy Mark A director 303 PEACHTREE ST. 30TH FLOOR ATLANTA GA 30308
Owens Lester officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 240 GREENWICH STREET NEW YORK NY 10286
Sommers Barry officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001
Weinbach Michael S officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001
Black Steven D director C/O JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 270 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10017
Carr Muneera S officer: EVP, CAO & Controller 1717 MAIN STREET MAIL CODE 6500 DALLAS TX 75201
Patterson Ellen R officer: Sr. EVP and General Counsel 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001

Wells Fargo Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)