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Fortune Valley Treasures Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.52% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Fortune Valley Treasures's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.52%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Fortune Valley Treasures's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Fortune Valley Treasures Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Fortune Valley Treasures's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Fortune Valley Treasures's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Fortune Valley Treasures Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-5.26

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.52%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Fortune Valley Treasures  (OTCPK:FVTI) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Fortune Valley Treasures Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Fortune Valley Treasures Business Description

Fortune Valley Treasures logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical NAICS : 445310 SIC : 5921
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Qiaoxiang Road, Shahe Street, 13th Floor, Building B1, Wisdom Plaza, Nanshan District, Guangdong, Shenzhen, CHN, 518000
Fortune Valley Treasures Inc is engaged in operations of wholesale distribution and retail sales of food and beverage products in the People's Republic of China. The company is into acquiring businesses that are into food, beverage, and alcohol industries. Its products include a variety of wines, such as dry red wine, dry white wine, rose wine, and sweet wine, and other products. Its products are sold to retailers, such as wine shops, convenience stores, and supermarkets.
Executives
Lin Kaihong director, officer: CFO, Treasurer, Director NO. 10 OF TUANJIE 2ND ROAD BEICE, HUMEN DONGGUAN, GUANGDONG F4 518000
Shen Xinlong director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, CFO 19F, LIANHE TOWER, 1069 NANHAI AVE, NANSHAN DISTRICT SHENZHEN F4 518000

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