Prudential (Prudential) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.10% (As of Today)

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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Prudential's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison

For the Insurance - Life subindustry, Prudential's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Prudential Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Prudential's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Prudential's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Prudential Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-6.89

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.10%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Short-term investments)

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Prudential (OTCPK:PUKPF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Prudential Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Prudential (Prudential) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Prudential PLC (OTCPK:PUKPF) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PUK:USA K6S:Singapore 02378:Hong Kong PRUl:UK PRU:UK PRU:Germany P1UK34:Brazil

Address

1 Angel Court, London, GBR, EC2R 7AG

Website

https://www.prudentialplc.com

Originally established as Prudential Mutual Assurance, Investment, and Loan Association in 1848, Prudential plc has moved on a lot since then. Set up to sell life insurance and loans to the middle and then the industrializing and urbanizing working classes, the company subsequently diversified into Europe and then North America with the purchase of Jackson National Life in around 1985. During its time as owner of Jackson, Prudential focused on building out a simple chassis-style product portfolio where customers could choose a variety of add-ons. The company also became renowned for its focus on building requisite internal capabilities to support its strong product offerings, including compelling technology and a large and well-trained distribution force.