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Safety Insurance Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.01% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Safety Insurance Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, Safety Insurance Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Safety Insurance Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Safety Insurance Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Safety Insurance Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Safety Insurance Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-9.03

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Cash and cash equivalents + Short-term investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Safety Insurance Group  (NAS:SAFT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Safety Insurance Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Safety Insurance Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Safety Insurance Group Business Description

Safety Insurance Group logo
Industry
Financial Services » Insurance NAICS : 524126 SIC : 6331
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20 Custom House Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02110
Safety Insurance Group Inc is a provider of private passenger automobile insurance in Massachusetts. The company also offers property and casualty insurance products, including commercial automobile, homeowners, dwelling fire, umbrella, and business owner policies. It operates in the business segment of Property and casualty insurance operations.
Executives
Srb Corp 10 percent owner 125 HIGH STREET OLIVER STREET TOWER, 9TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110
Plymouth Rock Co Inc 10 percent owner 695 ATLANTIC AVENUE BOSTON MA 02111
Lindeberg Frederic H director C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Moran Mary Coffey director DANVERS BANCORP, INC. ONE CONANT STREET DANVERS MA 01923
Whitford Christopher Thomas officer: VP, CFO and Secretary 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Murphy George director, officer: President and CEO C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Drago John Patrick officer: VP - Marketing 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Mckeown Ann Marie officer: V.P Insurance Operations 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Varga Stephen Albert officer: VP - MIS 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Narciso Paul J officer: VP - Claims C/O SAFETY INSURANCE 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Berry James officer: VP - Underwriting C/O SAFETY INSURANCE 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Manning Peter J director FLEETBOSTON FINANCIAL CORP 100 FEDERAL STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Meehan Thalia director C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Mckown David D director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: MCKOWN DAVID D a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Krupa David E officer: VP - Claims Operations PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: KRUPA DAVID E a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
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