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Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.00% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Exxon Mobil's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitive Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Exxon Mobil's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Exxon Mobil's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Exxon Mobil's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Exxon Mobil Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-10.16

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Exxon Mobil  (NYSE:XOM) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Exxon Mobil Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Exxon Mobil's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Business Description

Exxon Mobil logo
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Address
5959 Las Colinas Boulevard, Irving, TX, USA, 75039-2298
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil around the world. In 2021, it produced 2.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2021, reserves were 18.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 66% of which were liquids. The company is the world's largest refiner with a total global refining capacity of 4.6 million barrels of oil per day and one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Executives
Talley Darrin L officer: Vice President 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Ubben Jeffrey W director 1170 GORGAS AVENUE SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Mikells Kathryn A officer: Senior Vice President 77 W. WACKER DRIVE CHICAGO IL 60601
Karsner Alexander director C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC. 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039 SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Goff Gregory James director 19100 RIDGEWOOD PARKWAY SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Hietala Kaisa director 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD TX 75039-2298
Gibbs Jon M. officer: Executive Officer 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Fox Leonard M. officer: Vice President and Controller 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Angelakis Michael J director 40 MORRIS AVENUE BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Zulkiflee Wan director 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Morford Craig S officer: Vice President & Gen. Counsel CARDINAL HEALTH, INC. 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Carr Ian S officer: Vice President 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Littleton Stephen A officer: Vice President and Secretary 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD IRVING TX 75039-2298
Hooley Joseph L director STATE STREET CORPORATION ONE LINCOLN STREET BOSTON MA 02111
Mckee Karen T officer: Vice President 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD IRVING TX 75039-2298

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Headlines

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