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Archer-Daniels Midland Co (NYSE:ADM) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 12.02% (As of Dec. 2022)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Archer-Daniels Midland Co's forward rate of return for was 12.02%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

ADM' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -31.55   Med: -2.64   Max: 12.85
Current: 11.23

During the past 13 years, Archer-Daniels Midland Co's highest Forward Rate of Return was 12.85. The lowest was -31.55. And the median was -2.64.

ADM's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than
60.71% of 1232 companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 7.54 vs ADM: 11.23

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Archer-Daniels Midland Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Archer-Daniels Midland Co Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -14.00 -21.76 -18.05 -6.10 12.02

Archer-Daniels Midland Co Quarterly Data
Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -6.10 1.11 3.45 8.59 12.02

Competitive Comparison

For the Farm Products subindustry, Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Archer-Daniels Midland Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.



Archer-Daniels Midland Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Forward Rate of Return of Dec. 2022 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=-3.56628571/92.85+0.1586
=12.02 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Archer-Daniels Midland Co  (NYSE:ADM) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Archer-Daniels Midland Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Archer-Daniels Midland Co (NYSE:ADM) Business Description

Archer-Daniels Midland Co logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
77 West Wacker Drive, Suite 4600, Chicago, IL, USA, 60601
Archer-Daniels Midland is a major processor of oilseeds, corn, wheat, and other agricultural commodities. Additionally, the company owns an extensive network of logistical assets to store and transport crops around the globe. ADM also runs a nutrition business that focuses on both human and animal ingredients. The company is also a large producer of corn-based sweeteners, starches, and ethanol.
Executives
Collins James C. Jr. director 1007 MARKET STREET, D-9058, WILMINGTON DE 19898
Theodore Iii Colbert director C/O THE BOEING COMPANY, 100 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, CHICAGO IL 60606-1596
Strader Fruit Molly L officer: Vice Pres., Corp. Controller 77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Jennifer L Weber officer: Senior Vice President 1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Lei Zhang Schlitz director 5757 N. GREENBAY AVENUE, GLENDALE WI 53129
Michael S Burke director C/O AECOM TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, SUITE 3700, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Stefano Rettore officer: Senior Vice President 77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Suzan F. Harrison director 77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Debra A. Sandler director KEURIG DR PEPPER INC., 53 SOUTH AVE., BURLINGTON MA 01803
Vincent F Macciocchi officer: Senior Vice President 77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Christopher M Cuddy officer: President-Corn 77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Gregory A Morris officer: Senior Vice President 77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Francisco J Sanchez director 77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Benjamin I Bard officer: Vice President 4666 FARIES PARKWAY, DECATUR IL 62526
D Cameron Findlay officer: Senior Vice President 77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 2600, CHICAGO IL 60601

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