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Heritage Commerce Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 17.54% (As of Sep. 2021)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Heritage Commerce's forward rate of return for was 17.54%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Heritage Commerce's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

NAS:HTBK' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -10.51   Med: 11.61   Max: 28.73
Current: 17.9

-10.51
28.73

During the past 13 years, Heritage Commerce's highest Forward Rate of Return was 28.73. The lowest was -10.51. And the median was 11.61.

NAS:HTBK's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked lower than
79% of the 428 Companies
in the Banks industry.

( Industry Median: 14.99 vs. NAS:HTBK: 17.90 )

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Heritage Commerce Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Heritage Commerce's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Heritage Commerce Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 11.77 10.75 14.21 15.35 19.82

Heritage Commerce Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 22.88 19.82 16.65 17.52 17.54

Competitive Comparison

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Heritage Commerce's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Heritage Commerce Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Heritage Commerce's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Heritage Commerce's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Heritage Commerce Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Heritage Commerce's Forward Rate of Return of Sep. 2021 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year Book Value Growth Rate
=0.9687619/11.63+0.0921
=17.54 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Heritage Commerce  (NAS:HTBK) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of Book Value per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Heritage Commerce Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Heritage Commerce's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Heritage Commerce Business Description

Heritage Commerce logo
Industry
Financial Services » Banks NAICS : 522110 SIC : 6022
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
224 Airport Parkway, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110
Heritage Commerce Corporation operates as a bank holding company. The company, through its subsidiary, offers commercial banking services to small and medium-sized businesses and their owners, managers, and employees. It operates through two segments, namely Banking and Factoring. The bank generates a majority of its revenue from the Banking segment.
Executives
Cabral Bruce H director 150 ALMADEN BOULEVARD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Benito Michael Eugene officer: EVP 150 ALMADNE BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Moles Robert director HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP 150 ALMADEN BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Webster Ranson W director C/O HERITAGE BANK OF COMMERCE 150 ALMADEN BLVD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Bisceglia Frank G director C/O HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP 150 ALMADEN BLVD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Jones Robertson Clay Jr officer: EVP 150 ALMADEN BOULEVARD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Wilton Keith director, officer: President and CEO 150 ALMADEN BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Kaczmarek Walter Theodore director HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP 150 ALMADEN BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Conner Jack W director HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP 150 ALMADEN BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Biagini Komas Julianne M director 150 ALMADEN BOULEVARD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Mcgovern Lawrence D officer: EVP/CFO C/O HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP 150 ALMADEN BLVD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Dinapoli Jason Philip director 1875 CENTURY PARK EAST SUITE 1400 LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Roden Laura director 150 ALMADEN BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Butsch Margo G. officer: EVP/Chief Credit Officer 150 ALMADEN BLVD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Sutton Marina Park director 150 ALMADEN BOULEVARD SAN JOSE CA 95113

Heritage Commerce Headlines

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