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Marriott International Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: -14.87% (As of Jun. 2022)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Marriott International's forward rate of return for was -14.87%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Marriott International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

MAR' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -19.24   Med: 10.07   Max: 25.04
Current: -15.3

During the past 13 years, Marriott International's highest Forward Rate of Return was 25.04. The lowest was -19.24. And the median was 10.07.

MAR's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than
78.75% of 560 companies
in the Travel & Leisure industry
Industry Median: 2.30 vs MAR: -15.30

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Marriott International Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Marriott International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Marriott International Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 21.29 24.09 15.22 -4.93 -18.89

Marriott International Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -16.94 -18.92 -18.89 -17.71 -14.87

Competitive Comparison

For the Lodging subindustry, Marriott International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Marriott International Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Marriott International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Marriott International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Marriott International Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Marriott International's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2022 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=4.33885714/136.01+-0.1806
=-14.87 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Marriott International  (NAS:MAR) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Marriott International Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Marriott International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Marriott International Business Description

Marriott International logo
Address
10400 Fernwood Road, Bethesda, MD, USA, 20817
Marriott operates nearly 1.5 million rooms across roughly 30 brands. Luxury represents 10% of total rooms, while full service, limited service, and time-shares are 43%, 46%, and 2% of all units, respectively. Marriott, Courtyard, and Sheraton are the largest brands, while Autograph, Tribute, Moxy, Aloft, and Element are newer lifestyle brands. Managed and franchised represent 97% of total rooms. North America makes up two thirds of total rooms. Managed, franchise, and incentive fees represent the vast majority of revenue and profitability for the company.
Executives
Goren Isabella D director C/O LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES N V DELFTSEPLEIN 27E ROTTERDAM P7 3013AA
Breland Benjamin T. officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer 10400 FERNWOOD ROAD BETHESDA MD 20817
Rozanski Horacio director 8283 GREENSBORO DRIVE MCLEAN VA 22102
Lee Felitia officer: Controller and CAO 10400 FERNWOOD ROAD BETHESDA MD 20817
Mccarthy Margaret M director AETNA INC. 151 FARMINGTON AVENUE HARTFORD CT 06156
Brown William P officer: Pres. & Managing Dir., Europe 10400 FERNWOOD ROAD BETHESDA MD 20817
Reiss Rena Hozore officer: EVP & General Counsel 71 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE 12TH FLOOR CHICAGO IL 60606
Duncan Bruce W director ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE SUITE 4200 CHICAGO IL 60606
Hippeau Eric director STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE 44 SOUTH BROADWAY WHITE PLAINS NY 10601
Lewis Aylwin B director 111 N. CANAL SUITE 850 CHICAGO IL 60606
Oberg Kathleen K. officer: CFO 10400 FERNWOOD ROAD BETHESDA MD 20817
Smith Craig S. officer: Pres. Mgn. Dir. Asia Pacific 10400 FERNWOOD ROAD BETHESDA MD 20817
Schwab Susan C director 2101 VAN MUNCHING HALL COLLEGE PARK MD 20742
Juliana B. Marriott Marital Trust other: Member of a 10% Group 6106 MACARTHER BOULEVARD SUITE 110 BETHESDA MD 20816
Bauduin Val officer: Controller & CAO 10400 FERNWOOD ROAD BETHESDA MD 20817

Marriott International Headlines

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