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Burlington Stores Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 22.07% (As of Apr. 2019)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Burlington Stores's forward rate of return for was 22.07%.

NYSE:BURL' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 21.7   Max: 22.8
Current: 21.93

21.7
22.8

During the past 9 years, Burlington Stores's highest Forward Rate of Return was 22.80. The lowest was 21.70. And the median was 22.20.

NYSE:BURL's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked higher than
85% of the 201 Companies
in the Retail - Defensive industry.

( Industry Median: 13.64 vs. NYSE:BURL: 21.93 )

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Burlington Stores Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Burlington Stores Annual Data
Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.68 22.32

Burlington Stores Quarterly Data
Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 22.20 21.92 22.01 22.32 22.07

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Burlington Stores Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

* The bar in red indicates where Burlington Stores's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Burlington Stores Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Burlington Stores's Forward Rate of Return of Apr. 2019 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=3.48914286/168.91+0.2
=22.07 %

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


Burlington Stores  (NYSE:BURL) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over seven years. The reason we use seven years is because research shows that seven years is the length of the typical business cycle.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. More accurate measurement return returns are Return on Capital.


Burlington Stores Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms


Burlington Stores Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Headlines

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