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Caterpillar Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 14.30% (As of Jun. 2022)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Caterpillar's forward rate of return for was 14.30%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Caterpillar's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

CAT' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -12.69   Med: 12.15   Max: 25.27
Current: 14.6

During the past 13 years, Caterpillar's highest Forward Rate of Return was 25.27. The lowest was -12.69. And the median was 12.15.

CAT's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than
65.33% of 150 companies
in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry
Industry Median: 7.19 vs CAT: 14.60

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Caterpillar Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Caterpillar's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Caterpillar Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -10.40 5.66 21.22 22.75 20.59

Caterpillar Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 21.95 21.57 20.59 17.13 14.30

Competitive Comparison

For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery subindustry, Caterpillar's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Caterpillar Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry and Industrials sector, Caterpillar's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Caterpillar's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Caterpillar Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Caterpillar's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2022 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=6.88590476/178.76+0.1045
=14.30 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Caterpillar  (NYSE:CAT) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Caterpillar Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Caterpillar's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Caterpillar Business Description

Caterpillar logo
Address
510 Lake Cook Road, Suite 100, Deerfield, IL, USA, 60015
Caterpillar is an iconic manufacturer of heavy equipment, power solutions, and locomotives. It is currently the world's largest manufacturer of heavy equipment with over 13% market share in 2021. The company is divided into four reportable segments: construction industries, resource industries, energy and transportation, and Caterpillar Financial Services. Its products are available through a dealer network that covers the globe with over 2,000 branches maintained by 168 dealers. Caterpillar Financial Services provides retail financing for machinery and engines to its customers, in addition to wholesale financing for dealers, which increases the likelihood of Caterpillar product sales.
Executives
Schaupp William E officer: Chief Accounting Officer PPG INDUSTRIES, INC. ONE PPG PLACE PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Maclennan David director 14701 CHARLSON ROAD EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Johnson Gerald director 300 RENAISSANCE CENTER M/C: 482-C23-A68 DETROIT MI 48265
Fassino Anthony D. officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Marvel Gary Michael officer: Chief Accounting Officer 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Ainsworth William P officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD X1 60015
Bonfield Andrew R J officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO 345 PARK AVE NEW YORK NY 10164
Younessi Ramin officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Creed Joseph E officer: Interim CFO 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Ayotte Kelly director C/O NEWS CORPORATION 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Johnson Cheryl H officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 40 WESTMINSTER STREET PROVIDENCE RI 02903
Wilkins Rayford Jr director 208 S. AKARD ST. -- DALLAS TX 75202
Long Suzette M officer: Int. Executive Vice President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFILED IL 60015
De Lange Bob officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Johnson Denise C officer: Group President C/O CATERPILLAR, INCORPORATED 901 WEST WASHINGTON, CV41110 EAST PEORIA IL 61630

Caterpillar Headlines

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