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Chipotle Mexican Grill Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 20.68% (As of Sep. 2021)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Chipotle Mexican Grill's forward rate of return for was 20.68%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

NYSE:CMG' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -9.63   Med: 20.77   Max: 22.51
Current: 20.87

-9.63
22.51

During the past 13 years, Chipotle Mexican Grill's highest Forward Rate of Return was 22.51. The lowest was -9.63. And the median was 20.77.

NYSE:CMG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked higher than
80% of the 243 Companies
in the Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 3.38 vs. NYSE:CMG: 20.87 )

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2.65 -6.98 -8.66 -0.53 17.15

Chipotle Mexican Grill Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 11.30 17.15 20.75 20.74 20.68

Competitive Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Chipotle Mexican Grill Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Chipotle Mexican Grill's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Chipotle Mexican Grill Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Forward Rate of Return of Sep. 2021 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=12.2847619/1817.52+0.2
=20.68 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Chipotle Mexican Grill  (NYSE:CMG) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Chipotle Mexican Grill's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Business Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants NAICS : 722513 SIC : 5812
Address
610 Newport Center Drive, Suite 1300, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660
Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales approaching $6 billion in 2020. The Mexican concept is entirely company-owned, with a footprint of 2,850 stores heavily indexed to the United States, though the firm maintains a small presence in Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany. Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.
Executives
Engles Gregg L director 1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET SUITE 1000 DENVER CO 80202
Winston Mary A director 557 BROADWAY C/O SCHOLASTIC CORP NEW YORK NY 10012
Niccol Brian R director, officer: Chairman, CEO 1 GLEN BELL WAY IRVINE CA 92618
Baldocchi Albert S director 1601 HIGH STREET BOULDER CO 80304
Boatwright Scott officer: Chief Restaurant Officer 1401 WYNKOOP STREET SUITE 500 DENVER CO 80202
Pringle Robin S director 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Maw Scott Harlan director 1411 E. MISSION AVENUE SPOKANE WA 99202
Paull Matthew H director MCDONALDS CORP 2915 JORIE BLVD OAK BROOK IL 60523
Flanzraich Neil director 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD MIAMI FL 33137
Cappuccio Paul T director TIME WARNER INC. ONE TIME WARNER CENTER NEW YORK NY 10019
Filikrushel Patricia director DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION 100 MISSION RIDGE GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Namvar Ali director C/O PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Garner Curtis E officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O AEROHIVE NETWORKS, INC. 330 GIBRALTAR DRIVE SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Andrada Marissa officer: Chief People Officer C/O KATE SPADE & COMPANY 2 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10016
Schalow Laurie officer: Chief Corp Reputation Officer 610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE SUITE 1300 NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660

Chipotle Mexican Grill Headlines

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