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The Hershey Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 12.25% (As of Jun. 2021)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. The Hershey Co's forward rate of return for was 12.25%.

The historical rank and industry rank for The Hershey Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

NYSE:HSY' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2.9   Med: 11.19   Max: 19.04
Current: 12.11

2.9
19.04

During the past 13 years, The Hershey Co's highest Forward Rate of Return was 19.04. The lowest was 2.90. And the median was 11.19.

NYSE:HSY's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked higher than
60% of the 78 Companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry.

( Industry Median: 13.33 vs. NYSE:HSY: 12.11 )

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


The Hershey Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for The Hershey Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

The Hershey Co Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 5.90 3.93 7.99 12.38 13.56

The Hershey Co Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 14.25 14.01 13.56 13.09 12.25

Competitive Comparison

For the Confectioners subindustry, The Hershey Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

The Hershey Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, The Hershey Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Hershey Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



The Hershey Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

The Hershey Co's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2021 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=5.6672381/174.18+0.09
=12.25 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


The Hershey Co  (NYSE:HSY) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


The Hershey Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The Hershey Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


The Hershey Co Business Description

The Hershey Co logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
19 East Chocolate Avenue, Hershey, PA, USA, 17033
Hershey is a leading confectionery manufacturer in the U.S. (nearly a $25 billion market), controlling around 46% of the domestic chocolate space (per IRI). Beyond its namesake label, the firm's mix has expanded over the last 85 years and now consists of 90 brands, including Reese's, Kit Kat, Kisses, and Ice Breakers. Hershey's products are sold in about 85 countries, with just 10% of total sales coming from markets outside the U.S., including Brazil, China, India, and Mexico. The firm has sought inorganic opportunities to extend its reach beyond its core confection business, adding Amplify Snack Brands and its Skinny Pop ready-to-eat popcorn to its mix and Pirate Brands (including the Pirate's Booty, Smart Puffs, and Original Tings brands) over the past few years.
Executives
Atkins Damien officer: SVP, GC and Secretary THE HERSHEY COMPANY 100 CRYSTAL A DRIVE HERSHEY PA 17033
Arway Pamela M director 601 HAWAII ST. EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Katzman James C director 6000 N. HOMESTEAD LANE PARADISE VALLEY AZ 85253
Palmer Anthony J. director P.O. BOX 619100 DALLAS TX 75261-9100
Davis Charles A director 1 CAPE MAY ST 1 CAPE MAY ST HARRISON NJ 07029
Dutkowsky Robert M director JD EDWARDS & CO ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY DENVER CO 80237
Haben Mary Kay director C/O EQUITY RESIDENTIAL TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400 CHICAGO IL 60606
Brown James W director FRANKLIN SQUARE CAPITAL PARTNERS 201 ROUSE BLVD. PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Schoppert Wendy Lee director 6105 TRENTON LANE NORTH MINNEAPOLIS MN 55442
Shedlarz David L director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SHEDLARZ DAVID L a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Malcolm Robert director C/O LOGITECH INTERNATIONAL S.A. RUE DU SABLON 2-4 MORGES V8 1110
Perez Juan R. director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Koken Mary Diane director THE HERSHEY COMPANY 100 CRYSTAL A DRIVE HERSHEY PA 17033
Crawford Victor L. director C/O THE PEPSI BOTTLING GROUP, INC. ONE PEPSI WAY SOMERS NY 10589
Buck Michele director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO THE HERSHEY COMPANY 100 CRYSTAL A DRIVE HERSHEY PA 17033

The Hershey Co Headlines

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