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XPO Logistics Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 8.91% (As of Jun. 2022)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. XPO Logistics's forward rate of return for was 8.91%.

The historical rank and industry rank for XPO Logistics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

XPO' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -7.79   Med: 3.14   Max: 28.68
Current: 7.48

During the past 13 years, XPO Logistics's highest Forward Rate of Return was 28.68. The lowest was -7.79. And the median was 3.14.

XPO's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than
55.14% of 700 companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 9.70 vs XPO: 7.48

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


XPO Logistics Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for XPO Logistics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

XPO Logistics Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 23.85 13.31 2.00

XPO Logistics Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 3.56 2.49 2.00 4.07 8.91

Competitive Comparison

For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, XPO Logistics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

XPO Logistics Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, XPO Logistics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where XPO Logistics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



XPO Logistics Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

XPO Logistics's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2022 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=4.17790476/48.16+0.0023
=8.91 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


XPO Logistics  (NYSE:XPO) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


XPO Logistics Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of XPO Logistics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


XPO Logistics Business Description

XPO Logistics logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Five American Lane, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06831
XPO Logistics is a diversified trucking and logistics company, built mostly via acquisition (until 2016). Following the third-quarter 2021 spin-off of its global contract logistics division (outsourced warehousing and supply-chain services), XPO's portfolio reflects its transportation operations--asset-based less-than-truckload shipping (33% of gross revenue), asset-light freight brokerage including intermodal and truck brokerage (29%), heavy goods last mile delivery (8%), and its European truckload and LTL operations (24%). The remainder of revenue stems from managed transportation and global forwarding services.
Executives
Brown Christopher Michael officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O XPO LOGISTICS, INC. FIVE AMERICAN LANE GREENWICH CT 06831
Bradley S Jacobs director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O XPO LOGISTICS, INC. FIVE AMERICAN LANE GREENWICH CT 06831
Tulsyan Ravi officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O XPO LOGISTICS, INC. FIVE AMERICAN LANE GREENWICH CT 06831
Aiken Jason W director C/O GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION 2941 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, SUITE 100 FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Kissel Mary E. director C/O XPO LOGISTICS, INC. FIVE AMERICAN LANE GREENWICH CT 06831
Landry Allison director C/O XPO LOGISTICS, INC. FIVE AMERICAN LANE GREENWICH CT 06831
Taylor Johnny Clayton Jr. director C/O XPO LOGISTICS, INC. FIVE AMERICAN LANE GREENWICH CT 06831
Jacobs Private Equity, Llc director, 10 percent owner 350 ROUND HILL ROAD GREENWICH CT 06831
Spruce House Partnership Llc 10 percent owner 435 HUDSON STREET 8TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10014
Spruce House Partnership (qp) Lp 10 percent owner 435 HUDSON ST #804 NEW YORK NY 10014
Wyshner David B officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O XPO LOGISTICS, INC. FIVE AMERICAN LANE GREENWICH CT 06831
Rogers Kurt officer: Chief Legal Officer STERICYCLE, INC 2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Kekedjian Aris director 655 THIRD AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR 10017 NY 10017
Colucci Marlene M director C/O GXO LOGISTICS, INC. TWO AMERICAN LANE GREENWICH CT 06831
Sternberg Zachary 10 percent owner 435 HUDSON STREET SUITE 804 NEW YORK NY 10014

XPO Logistics Headlines

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