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Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 10.46% (As of Sep. 2022)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Exxon Mobil's forward rate of return for was 10.46%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Exxon Mobil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

XOM' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -18.18   Med: 1.08   Max: 16.32
Current: 9.28

During the past 13 years, Exxon Mobil's highest Forward Rate of Return was 16.32. The lowest was -18.18. And the median was 1.08.

XOM's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than
55.11% of 577 companies
in the Oil & Gas industry
Industry Median: 6.58 vs XOM: 9.28

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Exxon Mobil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Exxon Mobil Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -17.06 -8.57 0.25 1.13 0.57

Exxon Mobil Quarterly Data
Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.07 0.57 1.38 5.25 10.46

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Competitive Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Exxon Mobil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Exxon Mobil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Exxon Mobil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Exxon Mobil Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Exxon Mobil's Forward Rate of Return of Sep. 2022 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=4.80552381/87.31+0.0496
=10.46 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Exxon Mobil  (NYSE:XOM) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Exxon Mobil Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Exxon Mobil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Business Description

Exxon Mobil logo
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) » Definitions » Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Address
5959 Las Colinas Boulevard, Irving, TX, USA, 75039-2298
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil around the world. In 2021, it produced 2.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2021, reserves were 18.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 66% of which were liquids. The company is the world's largest refiner with a total global refining capacity of 4.6 million barrels of oil per day and one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Executives
Talley Darrin L officer: Vice President 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Ubben Jeffrey W director 1170 GORGAS AVENUE SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Mikells Kathryn A officer: Senior Vice President 77 W. WACKER DRIVE CHICAGO IL 60601
Karsner Alexander director C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC. 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039 SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Goff Gregory James director 19100 RIDGEWOOD PARKWAY SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Hietala Kaisa director 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD TX 75039-2298
Gibbs Jon M. officer: Executive Officer 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Fox Leonard M. officer: Vice President and Controller 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Angelakis Michael J director 40 MORRIS AVENUE BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Zulkiflee Wan director 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Morford Craig S officer: Vice President & Gen. Counsel CARDINAL HEALTH, INC. 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Carr Ian S officer: Vice President 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION IRVING TX 75039-2298
Littleton Stephen A officer: Vice President and Secretary 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD IRVING TX 75039-2298
Hooley Joseph L director STATE STREET CORPORATION ONE LINCOLN STREET BOSTON MA 02111
Mckee Karen T officer: Vice President 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD IRVING TX 75039-2298

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) Headlines

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