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ConocoPhillips  (NYSE:COP) E10: $2.34 (As of Sep. 2017)

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

ConocoPhillips's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2017 was $0.340. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our e10, which is $2.34 for the trailing ten years ended in Sep. 2017.

As of today, ConocoPhillips's current stock price is $50.22. ConocoPhillips's E10 for the quarter that ended in Sep. 2017 was $2.34. ConocoPhillips's Shiller PE Ratio of today is 21.46.

During the past 13 years, the highest Shiller PE Ratio of ConocoPhillips was 22.65. The lowest was 6.17. And the median was 11.51.


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

ConocoPhillips Annual Data

Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16
E10 Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 5.57 5.97 5.80 4.35 3.00

ConocoPhillips Quarterly Data

Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17
E10 Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 3.22 3.00 2.82 2.55 2.34

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. When we calculate the today's Shiller P/E ratio of a stock, we use today’s price divided by E10.

What is E10? How do we calculate E10?

E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the E10 of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the earnings from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the earnings of 2001 earnings data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent earnings in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart earned $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent earnings in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart earns $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 earnings in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent earnings of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by 10 to get E10.

For example, ConocoPhillips's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2017 was:

Adj_EPS= Earnings per Share (Diluted) /CPI of Sep. 2017 (Change)*Current CPI (Sep. 2017)
=0.34/246.819*246.819
=0.340

Current CPI (Sep. 2017) = 246.819.

ConocoPhillips Quarterly Data

per share eps CPI Adj_EPS
200712 2.680 210.036 3.149
200803 2.620 213.528 3.028
200806 3.500 218.815 3.948
200809 3.390 218.783 3.824
200812 -20.770 210.228 -24.385
200903 0.540 212.709 0.627
200906 0.570 215.693 0.652
200909 0.970 215.969 1.109
200912 0.860 215.949 0.983
201003 1.400 217.631 1.588
201006 2.770 217.965 3.137
201009 2.050 218.439 2.316
201012 1.410 219.179 1.588
201103 2.090 223.467 2.308
201106 2.410 225.722 2.635
201109 1.910 226.889 2.078
201112 2.550 225.672 2.789
201203 2.270 229.392 2.442
201206 1.800 229.478 1.936
201209 1.460 231.407 1.557
201212 1.170 229.601 1.258
201303 1.730 232.773 1.834
201306 1.650 233.504 1.744
201309 2.000 234.149 2.108
201312 2.000 233.049 2.118
201403 1.710 236.293 1.786
201406 1.670 238.343 1.729
201409 2.170 238.031 2.250
201412 -0.040 234.812 -0.042
201503 0.220 236.119 0.230
201506 -0.150 238.638 -0.155
201509 -0.870 237.945 -0.902
201512 -2.780 236.525 -2.901
201603 -1.180 238.132 -1.223
201606 -0.860 241.018 -0.881
201609 -0.840 241.428 -0.859
201612 -0.030 241.432 -0.031
201703 0.470 243.801 0.476
201706 -2.780 244.955 -2.801
201709 0.340 246.819 0.340

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our e10.


Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, E10 may underestimate the company's earnings power. Shiller PE Ratio can seem to be too high even the actual P/E is low.

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

ConocoPhillips's Shiller P/E Ratio of today is calculated as

Shiller PE Ratio=Share Price/E10
=50.22/2.34
=21.46

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Shiller P/E Ratio of ConocoPhillips was 22.65. The lowest was 6.17. And the median was 11.51.


Be Aware

Shiller PE Ratio works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real earnings power.


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