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Forward Air Corp  (NAS:FWRD) E10: $1.60 (As of Sep. 2017)

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Forward Air Corp's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2017 was $0.600. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our e10, which is $1.60 for the trailing ten years ended in Sep. 2017.

As of today, Forward Air Corp's current stock price is $54.45. Forward Air Corp's E10 for the quarter that ended in Sep. 2017 was $1.60. Forward Air Corp's Shiller PE Ratio of today is 34.03.

During the past 13 years, the highest Shiller PE Ratio of Forward Air Corp was 38.92. The lowest was 13.00. And the median was 28.05.


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Forward Air Corp Annual Data

Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16
E10 Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.38 1.49 1.55 1.57 1.51

Forward Air Corp Quarterly Data

Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17
E10 Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.52 1.51 1.53 1.57 1.60

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. When we calculate the today's Shiller P/E ratio of a stock, we use today’s price divided by E10.

What is E10? How do we calculate E10?

E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the E10 of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the earnings from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the earnings of 2001 earnings data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent earnings in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart earned $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent earnings in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart earns $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 earnings in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent earnings of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by 10 to get E10.

For example, Forward Air Corp's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2017 was:

Adj_EPS= Earnings per Share (Diluted) /CPI of Sep. 2017 (Change)*Current CPI (Sep. 2017)
=0.6/246.819*246.819
=0.600

Current CPI (Sep. 2017) = 246.819.

Forward Air Corp Quarterly Data

per share eps CPI Adj_EPS
200712 0.420 210.036 0.494
200803 0.350 213.528 0.405
200806 0.420 218.815 0.474
200809 0.420 218.783 0.474
200812 0.290 210.228 0.340
200903 -0.110 212.709 -0.128
200906 0.100 215.693 0.114
200909 0.130 215.969 0.149
200912 0.220 215.949 0.251
201003 0.120 217.631 0.136
201006 0.270 217.965 0.306
201009 0.310 218.439 0.350
201012 0.410 219.179 0.462
201103 0.270 223.467 0.298
201106 0.400 225.722 0.437
201109 0.440 226.889 0.479
201112 0.490 225.672 0.536
201203 0.350 229.392 0.377
201206 0.480 229.478 0.516
201209 0.410 231.407 0.437
201212 0.540 229.601 0.580
201303 0.360 232.773 0.382
201306 0.450 233.504 0.476
201309 0.460 234.149 0.485
201312 0.500 233.049 0.530
201403 0.330 236.293 0.345
201406 0.550 238.343 0.570
201409 0.540 238.031 0.560
201412 0.550 234.812 0.578
201503 0.160 236.119 0.167
201506 0.380 238.638 0.393
201509 0.500 237.945 0.519
201512 0.750 236.525 0.783
201603 0.430 238.132 0.446
201606 -0.330 241.018 -0.338
201609 0.390 241.428 0.399
201612 0.410 241.432 0.419
201703 0.470 243.801 0.476
201706 0.640 244.955 0.645
201709 0.600 246.819 0.600

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our e10.


Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, E10 may underestimate the company's earnings power. Shiller PE Ratio can seem to be too high even the actual P/E is low.

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Forward Air Corp's Shiller P/E Ratio of today is calculated as

Shiller PE Ratio=Share Price/E10
=54.45/1.60
=34.03

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Shiller P/E Ratio of Forward Air Corp was 38.92. The lowest was 13.00. And the median was 28.05.


Be Aware

Shiller PE Ratio works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real earnings power.


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