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Panera Bread Co Piotroski F-Score

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The zones of discrimination were as such:

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Panera Bread Co has an F-score of 7. It is a good or high score, which usually indicates a very healthy situation.


Panera Bread Co Piotroski F-Score Historical Data

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Panera Bread Co Annual Data
Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16
Piotroski F-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 8.00 5.00 6.00 5.00 5.00

Panera Bread Co Quarterly Data
Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17
Piotroski F-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.00 6.00 5.00 5.00 7.00

How is the Piotroski F-Score calculated?

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar17) TTM:Last Year (Mar16) TTM:
Net Income was 34.501 + 31.975 + 44.01 + 42.494 = $153 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 119.973 + 26.347 + 158.608 + 75.761 = $381 Mil.
Revenue was 698.9 + 684.206 + 727.106 + 727.633 = $2,838 Mil.
Gross Profit was 147.311 + 136.821 + 161.496 + 162.669 = $608 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of this year (Mar16)
to the end of this year (Mar17) was
(1316.318 + 1298.493 + 1253.536 + 1301.611 + 1299.361) / 5 = $1293.8638 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of this year (Mar16) was $1,316 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $461 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $311 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $395 Mil.
Net Income was 41.929 + 32.393 + 43.16 + 35.088 = $153 Mil.

Revenue was 676.657 + 664.654 + 691.765 + 685.153 = $2,718 Mil.
Gross Profit was 131.893 + 128.034 + 152.715 + 144.337 = $557 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of last year (Mar15)
to the end of last year (Mar16) was
(1341.13 + 1285.794 + 1483.214 + 1475.318 + 1316.318) / 5 = $1380.3548 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of last year (Mar15) was $1,341 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $385 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $333 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $359 Mil.

*Note: If the latest quarterly/semi-annual/annual total assets data is 0, then we will use previous quarterly/semi-annual/annual data for all the items in the balance sheet.

Profitability

Question 1. Return on Assets (ROA)

Net income before extraordinary items for the year divided by Total Assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Panera Bread Co's current Net Income (TTM) was 153. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 2. Cash Flow Return on Assets (CFROA)

Net cash flow from operating activities (operating cash flow) divided by Total Assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Panera Bread Co's current Cash Flow from Operations (TTM) was 381. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 3. Change in Return on Assets

Compare this year's return on assets (1) to last year's return on assets.

Score 1 if it's higher, 0 if it's lower.

ROA (This Year)=Net Income/Total Assets (Mar16)
=152.98/1316.318
=0.11621812

ROA (Last Year)=Net Income/Total Assets (Mar15)
=152.57/1341.13
=0.11376228

Panera Bread Co's return on assets of this year was 0.11621812. Panera Bread Co's return on assets of last year was 0.11376228. ==> This year is higher. ==> Score 1.

Question 4. Quality of Earnings (Accrual)

Compare Cash flow return on assets (2) to return on assets (1)

Score 1 if CFROA > ROA, 0 if CFROA <= ROA.

Panera Bread Co's current Net Income (TTM) was 153. Panera Bread Co's current Cash Flow from Operations (TTM) was 381. ==> 381 > 153 ==> CFROA > ROA ==> Score 1.

Funding

Question 5. Change in Gearing or Leverage

Compare this year's gearing (long-term debt divided by average total assets) to last year's gearing.

Score 0 if this year's gearing is higher, 1 otherwise.

Gearing (This Year: Mar17)=Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation/Average Total Assets from Mar16 to Mar17
=461.451/1293.8638
=0.35664573

Gearing (Last Year: Mar16)=Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation/Average Total Assets from Mar15 to Mar16
=385.251/1380.3548
=0.27909564

Panera Bread Co's gearing of this year was 0.35664573. Panera Bread Co's gearing of last year was 0.27909564. ==> Last year is lower than this year ==> Score 0.

Question 6. Change in Working Capital (Liquidity)

Compare this year's current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) to last year's current ratio.

Score 1 if this year's current ratio is higher, 0 if it's lower

Current Ratio (This Year: Mar17)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=311.408/394.586
=0.78920185

Current Ratio (Last Year: Mar16)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=332.869/359.398
=0.9261849

Panera Bread Co's current ratio of this year was 0.78920185. Panera Bread Co's current ratio of last year was 0.9261849. ==> Last year's current ratio is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 7. Change in Shares in Issue

Compare the number of shares in issue this year, to the number in issue last year.

Score 0 if there is larger number of shares in issue this year, 1 otherwise.

Panera Bread Co's number of shares in issue this year was 22.624. Panera Bread Co's number of shares in issue last year was 24.214. ==> There is smaller number of shares in issue this year, or the same. ==> Score 1.

Efficiency

Question 8. Change in Gross Margin

Compare this year's gross margin (Gross Profit divided by sales) to last year's.

Score 1 if this year's gross margin is higher, 0 if it's lower.

Gross Margin (This Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=608.297/2837.845
=0.21435174

Gross Margin (Last Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=556.979/2718.229
=0.20490511

Panera Bread Co's gross margin of this year was 0.21435174. Panera Bread Co's gross margin of last year was 0.20490511. ==> This year's gross margin is higher. ==> Score 1.

Question 9. Change in asset turnover

Compare this year's asset turnover (total sales for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year) to last year's asset turnover ratio.

Score 1 if this year's asset turnover ratio is higher, 0 if it's lower

Asset Turnover (This Year)=Revenue/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Mar16)
=2837.845/1316.318
=2.15589622

Asset Turnover (Last Year)=Revenue/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Mar15)
=2718.229/1341.13
=2.02681992

Panera Bread Co's asset turnover of this year was 2.15589622. Panera Bread Co's asset turnover of last year was 2.02681992. ==> This year's asset turnover is higher. ==> Score 1.

Evaluation

Piotroski F-Score= Que. 1+ Que. 2+ Que. 3+Que. 4+Que. 5+Que. 6+Que. 7+Que. 8+Que. 9
=1+1+1+1+0+0+1+1+1
=7

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Panera Bread Co has an F-score of 7. It is a good or high score, which usually indicates a very healthy situation.

Panera Bread Co  (NAS:PNRA) Piotroski F-Score Explanation

The developer of the system is Joseph D. Piotroski is relatively unknown accounting professor who shuns publicity and rarely gives interviews.

He graduated from the University of Illinois with a B.S. in accounting in 1989, received an M.B.A. from Indiana University in 1994. Five years later, in 1999, after earning a Ph.D. in accounting from the University of Michigan, he became an associate professor of accounting at the University of Chicago.

In 2000, he wrote a research paper called "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers" (pdf).

He wanted to see if he can develop a system (using a simple nine-point scoring system) that can increase the returns of a strategy of investing in low price to book (referred to in the paper as high book to market) value companies.

What he found was something that exceeded his most optimistic expectations.

Buying only those companies that scored highest (8 or 9) on his nine-point scale, or F-Score as he called it, over the 20 year period from 1976 to 1996 led to an average out-performance over the market of 13.4%.

Even more impressive were the results of a strategy of investing in the highest F-Score companies (8 or 9) and shorting companies with the lowest F-Score (0 or 1).

Over the same period from 1976 to 1996 (20 years) this strategy led to an average yearly return of 23%, substantially outperforming the average S&P 500 index return of 15.83% over the same period.


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