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Trip.com Group (HKSE:09961) Graham Number

: HK$179.48 (As of Sep. 2023)
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Graham Number is a figure that measures a stock's fundamental value by taking into account the company's earnings per share and book value per share. The Graham number is the upper bound of the price range that a defensive investor should pay for the stock. According to the theory, any stock price below the Graham number is considered undervalued, and thus worth investing in.

As of today (2024-04-19), the stock price of Trip.com Group is HK$379.40. Trip.com Group's graham number for the quarter that ended in Sep. 2023 was HK$179.48. Therefore, Trip.com Group's Price to Graham Number ratio for today is 1.93.

The historical rank and industry rank for Trip.com Group's Graham Number or its related term are showing as below:

HKSE:09961' s Price-to-Graham-Number Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.53   Med: 4.28   Max: 19.61
Current: 1.92

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Graham Number ratio of Trip.com Group was 19.61. The lowest was 1.53. And the median was 4.28.

HKSE:09961's Price-to-Graham-Number is ranked worse than
65.16% of 465 companies
in the Travel & Leisure industry
Industry Median: 1.4 vs HKSE:09961: 1.92

Graham Number is a combination of asset valuation and earnings power valuation. It is a very conservative way of valuing a stock.


Trip.com Group Graham Number Historical Data

The historical data trend for Trip.com Group's Graham Number can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Trip.com Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Graham Number
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 107.25 - - 55.27 197.99

Trip.com Group Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Graham Number Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 58.31 100.21 142.45 179.48 198.13

Competitive Comparison

For the Travel Services subindustry, Trip.com Group's Price-to-Graham-Number, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Graham-Number data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Trip.com Group Price-to-Graham-Number Distribution

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Trip.com Group's Price-to-Graham-Number distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Trip.com Group's Price-to-Graham-Number falls into.



Trip.com Group Graham Number Calculation

Graham Number is a concept based on Ben Graham's conservative valuation of companies.

Trip.com Group's Graham Number for the fiscal year that ended in Dec. 2022 is calculated as

Graham Number
=sqrt of (22.5* Tangible Book per Share *EPS without NRI)
=sqrt of (22.5*69.348*1.958)
=55.27

Trip.com Group's Graham Number for the quarter that ended in Sep. 2023 is calculated as

Graham Number
=sqrt of (22.5*Tangible Book per Share*EPS without NRI (TTM))
=sqrt of (22.5*80.782*21.249)
=196.53

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Trip.com Group  (HKSE:09961) Graham Number Explanation

Ben Graham actually did not publish a formula like this. But he wrote in The Intelligent Investor (1948 version) regarding to the criteria for purchases:

Current price should not be more than 15 times average earnings of the past three years.

Current price should not be more than 1.5 times the book value last reported. However, a multiplier of earnings below 15 could justify a correspondingly higher multiplier of assets. As a rule of thumb we suggest that the product of the multiplier times the ratio of price to book value should not exceed 22.5. (This figure corresponds to 15 times earnings and 1.5 times book value. It would admit an issue selling at only 9 times earnings and 2.5 times asset value, etc.)

Unlike valuation methods such as DCF or Discounted Earnings, the Graham number does not take growth into the valuation. Unlike the valuation methods based on book value alone, it takes into account the earnings power. Therefore, the Graham Number is a combination of asset valuation and earnings power valuation.

In general, the Graham number is a very conservative way of valuing a stock. It cannot be applied to companies with negative book values.

Trip.com Group's Price to Graham number Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Graham number=Share Price (Today)/Graham number (Q: Sep. 2023 )
=379.40/196.53
=1.93

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Be Aware

Please keep these in mind:

1. Graham Number does not take growth into account. Therefore it underestimates the values of the companies that have good earnings growth. We feel that if the earnings per share grows more than 10% a year, Graham Number underestimates the value.
2. Graham Number punishes the companies that have temporarily low earnings. Therefore, an average of earnings makes more sense in the calculation of Graham Number.
3. Graham Numbers underestimates companies that are light with book.


Trip.com Group Graham Number Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Trip.com Group's Graham Number provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Trip.com Group (HKSE:09961) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
968 Jin Zhong Road, Shanghai, CHN, 200335
Trip.com is the largest online travel agent in China and is positioned to benefit from the country's rising demand for higher-margin outbound travel as passport penetration is only 12% in China. The company generated about 78% of sales from accommodation reservations and transportation ticketing in 2020. The rest of revenue comes from package tours and corporate travel. Prior to the pandemic in 2019, the company generated 25% of revenue from international business, which is important to its margin expansion. Most of sales come from websites and mobile platforms, while the rest come from call centers. The competes in a crowded OTA industry in China, including Meituan, Alibaba-backed Fliggy, Tongcheng, and Qunar. The company was founded in 1999 and listed on the Nasdaq in December 2003.

Trip.com Group (HKSE:09961) Headlines

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