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The Estee Lauder (The Estee Lauder) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $48.17 (As of Jul. 23, 2024)


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What is The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-07-23), The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $48.17. The stock price of The Estee Lauder is $99.96. Therefore, The Estee Lauder's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 2.1.

The historical rank and industry rank for The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

EL' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.86   Med: 2.95   Max: 5.18
Current: 2.08

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of The Estee Lauder was 5.18. The lowest was 1.86. And the median was 2.95.

EL's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
74.96% of 1250 companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 1.1 vs EL: 2.08

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

The Estee Lauder Annual Data
Trend Jun14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 56.16 51.26 63.74 66.80 51.00

The Estee Lauder Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 62.70 51.00 46.06 51.80 48.17

Competitive Comparison of The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Household & Personal Products subindustry, The Estee Lauder's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


The Estee Lauder's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, The Estee Lauder's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Estee Lauder's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get The Estee Lauder's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $1,342.72.

The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Mar24)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*1342.72+5744*0.8)/360.800
=48.17

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


The Estee Lauder  (NYSE:EL) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

The Estee Lauder's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=99.96/48.166204254251
=2.08

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


The Estee Lauder (The Estee Lauder) Business Description

Address
767 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10153
Estee Lauder is a leader in the global prestige beauty market, participating across skin care (56% of 2022 sales), makeup (26%), fragrance (14%), and hair care (4%) categories, with top-selling brands such as Estee Lauder, Clinique, M.A.C, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, Bobbi Brown, and Origins. The firm operates in more than 150 countries, generating 26% of revenue from the Americas, 43% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa (including travel retail), and 31% from Asia Pacific. Estee Lauder sells its products through department stores, travel retail, specialty multibrand beauty stores, brand-dedicated freestanding stores, e-commerce, salons/spas, and perfumeries.
Executives
Charlene Barshefsky director
Jane Lauder director 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Hudis Jane Hertzmark officer: Group President C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Carl P. Haney officer: EVP-Global R&D C/O ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Jennifer Hyman director 767 FIFTH AVENUE, C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., NEW YORK NY 10153
Fabrizio Freda officer: President and COO 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
De La Faverie Stephane officer: Executive Group President C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., NEW YORK NY 10153
Michael O'hare officer: EVP-Global Human Resources 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Wei Sun Christianson director MORGAN STANLEY, TOWER 1, 18 TAIPINGQIAO ST. XICHENG DIST, BEIJING F4 1000032
Barry S Sternlicht director STARWOOD CAPITAL GROUP GLOBAL LP, 1601 WASHINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 800, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Angela Wei Dong director C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Peter Jueptner officer: President, International
Arturo Nunez director C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Ronald S Lauder director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman Clinique Labs, Inc. 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
John Demsey officer: Group President 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036