Abercrombie & Fitch Co (Abercrombie & Fitch Co) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $72.59 (As of Today)

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As of today (2024-04-23), Abercrombie & Fitch Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $72.59.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Abercrombie & Fitch Co is -58.20%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Abercrombie & Fitch Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Abercrombie & Fitch Co was 3.16. The lowest was 0.00. And the median was 0.53.

ANF's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Retail - Cyclical industry.
Industry Median: 0.77
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Abercrombie & Fitch Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Annual Data

Trend

Jan15

Jan16

Jan17

Jan18

Jan19

Jan20

Jan21

Jan22

Jan23

Jan24

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Quarterly Data
	Apr19	Jul19	Oct19	Jan20	Apr20	Jul20	Oct20	Jan21	Apr21	Jul21	Oct21	Jan22	Apr22	Jul22	Oct22	Jan23	Apr23	Jul23	Oct23	Jan24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison

For the Apparel Retail subindustry, Abercrombie & Fitch Co's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Abercrombie & Fitch Co's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Abercrombie & Fitch Co's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.64%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Abercrombie & Fitch Co's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $6.290.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

6.290

11.5406

72.59

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(72.59	-	114.84)	/	72.59
	=	-58.20 %

Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE:ANF) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Abercrombie & Fitch Co (Abercrombie & Fitch Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE:ANF) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AFT:Germany AFT:Germany ANF:Argentina

Address

6301 Fitch Path, New Albany, OH, USA, 43054

Website

https://corporate.abercrombie.com

Abercrombie & Fitch Co is a specialty retailer that sells casual clothing, personal-care products, and accessories for men, women, and children. It sells direct to consumer through its stores and websites, which include the Abercrombie & Fitch, Abercrombie kids, and Hollister brands. Most stores are in the United States, but the company does have many stores in Canada, Europe, and Asia. All stores are leased. Abercrombie ships to well over 100 countries via its websites. The company sources its merchandise from dozens of vendors that are primarily located in Asia and Central America. Abercrombie has two distribution centers in Ohio to support its North American operations. It uses third-party distributors for sales in Europe and Asia.

Executives

Scott D. Lipesky	officer: SVP and CFO	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Kristin A. Scott	officer: Brand President-Hollister Co.	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Jay Rust	officer: EVP Human Resources	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Samir Desai	officer: EVP;Chief Digital&Tech Officer	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Sarah M. Gallagher	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Kenneth B. Robinson	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Gregory J Henchel	officer: SVP, Gen Cnsl & Secy	C/O HSN, INC., 1 HSN DRIVE, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33729
Fran Horowitz-bonadies	officer: President of Hollister brand	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Terry Lee Burman	director	CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Helen Vaid	director	600 WEST CHICAGO AVE., STE 400, CHICAGO IL 60654
Kerrii B Anderson	director	WENDY'S INTERNATIONAL, INC, 4288 WEST DUBLIN-GRANVILLE RD., DUBLIN OH 43017
Suzanne M Coulter	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Charles R Perrin	director	C/O AVON PRODUCS INC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105-0196
Holly May	officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
James A Goldman	director