Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (Bristol-Myers Squibb Co) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $214.79 (As of Today)

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As of today (2024-04-19), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $214.79.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's Predictability Rank is 4.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Bristol-Myers Squibb Co is 77.22%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

BMY' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.22 Med: 0.27 Max: 0.31
Current: 0.23

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co was 0.31. The lowest was 0.22. And the median was 0.27.

BMY's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than
96.27% of 161 companies
in the Drug Manufacturers industry
Industry Median: 1.06 vs BMY: 0.23

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

231.22

236.22

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																231.22	233.93	228.52	208.21	236.22

Competitive Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.62%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 18.70%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 18.70%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 18.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $7.500.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.187)/(1+0.11) = 1.0693693693694
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

7.500

28.6388

214.79

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(214.79	-	48.93)	/	214.79
	=	77.22 %

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (Bristol-Myers Squibb Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BMYMP.PFD:USA BMY:Peru BMY:Mexico 1BMY:Italy BRMd:UK 0R1F:UK BRM:Germany BRM:Germany BRM:Germany BRM:Germany BMYB34:Brazil BMYS:Austria BMY:Argentina

Address

430 East 29th Street, 14th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10016

Website

https://www.bms.com

Bristol-Myers Squibb discovers, develops, and markets drugs for various therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, cancer, and immune disorders. A key focus for Bristol is immuno-oncology, where the firm is a leader in drug development. Bristol derives close to 70% of total sales from the U.S., showing a higher dependence on the U.S. market than most of its peer group.

Executives

Christopher S. Boerner	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	21823 30TH DRIVE S, BOTHELL WA 98021
Samuels Theodore R. Ii	director	1990 E. GRAND AVE., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Cari Gallman	officer: EVP, Corporate Affairs	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Ann Powell Judge	officer: SVP, Human Resources	BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCELINE ROAD, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08543
Robert M Plenge	officer: EVP, Chief Research Officer	C/O TRANSLATE BIO, INC., 29 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Rupert Vessey	officer: Pres., Research & Early Dev.	C/O CELGENE CORPORATION, 86 MORRIS AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Adam Lenkowsky	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Giovanni Caforio	officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer	BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCELINE ROAD, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08543
David V Elkins	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Deepak Bhatt	director	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, 430 E. 29TH STREET, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Sandra Leung	officer: Vice President and Secretary	C/O BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO, 345 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10164
Sharon Greenlees	officer: SVP & Controller	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Karin Shanahan	officer: EVP, Glob. Prod. Dev. & Supply	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Gregory Scott Meyers	officer: EVP, Chief Digital & Tech Off.	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Autenried Paul Von	officer: SVP, Enterp. Services & CIO	BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, 100 NASSAU PARK BOULEVARD, PRINCETON NJ 08543