The Estee Lauder (MEX:EL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: MXN971.47 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-05-27), The Estee Lauder's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is MXN971.47.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

The Estee Lauder's Predictability Rank is 3.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for The Estee Lauder is -252.28%.

The historical rank and industry rank for The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

MEX:EL' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.74 Med: 1.25 Max: 7.01
Current: 3.52

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of The Estee Lauder was 7.01. The lowest was 0.74. And the median was 1.25.

MEX:EL's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
95.26% of 253 companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 0.95 vs MEX:EL: 3.52

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

The Estee Lauder Annual Data

Trend

Jun13

Jun14

Jun15

Jun16

Jun17

Jun18

Jun19

Jun20

Jun21

Jun22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

1,708.74

3,139.80

785.79

2,866.38

2,421.50

The Estee Lauder Quarterly Data
	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																3,123.49	2,421.50	1,997.98	1,318.89	891.09

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 9.10%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 9.10% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 9.10%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = MXN59.181.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.091)/(1+0.1) = 0.99181818181818
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

59.181

16.4152

971.47

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(971.47	-	3422.27)	/	971.47
	=	-252.28 %

The Estee Lauder (MEX:EL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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The Estee Lauder (MEX:EL) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » The Estee Lauder Companies Inc (MEX:EL) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EL:USA ELAA:Germany ELCI34:Brazil ESLA:Austria

Address

767 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10153

Website

https://www.elcompanies.com

Estee Lauder is the world leader in the global prestige beauty market, participating across skincare (56% of fiscal 2022 sales), makeup (26%), fragrance (14%), and haircare (4%) categories, with popular brands such as Estee Lauder, Clinique, MAC, La Mer, Jo Malone, Aveda, Bobbi Brown, Too Faced, Origins, Dr. Jart+, and The Ordinary. The firm operates in 150 countries, with 26% of fiscal 2022 revenue stemming from the Americas, 43% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and 31% from Asia-Pacific. The company sells its products through department stores, travel retail, multibrand specialty beauty stores, brand-dedicated freestanding stores, e-commerce, salons/spas, and perfumeries.