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Comcast Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $75.26 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-10), Comcast's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $75.26.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Comcast's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Comcast is 48.25%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Comcast's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CMCSA' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.17   Med: 0.56   Max: 1.63
Current: 0.52

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Comcast was 1.63. The lowest was 0.17. And the median was 0.56.

CMCSA's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than
72.92% of 48 companies
in the Telecommunication Services industry
Industry Median: 0.69 vs CMCSA: 0.52

Comcast Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Comcast's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Comcast Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 181.30 95.78 115.92 82.71 82.07

Comcast Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 87.73 101.48 82.07 76.24 75.26

Comcast Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 13.70%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 13.70% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 13.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $3.060.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Comcast's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.137)/(1+0.09) = 1.043119266055
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.060*24.5948
=75.26

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(75.26-38.945)/75.26
=48.25 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Comcast  (NAS:CMCSA) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Comcast Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Comcast's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Comcast Business Description

Comcast logo
Address
One Comcast Center, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19103-2838
Comcast is made up of three parts. The core cable business owns networks capable of providing television, internet access, and phone services to roughly 61 million U.S. homes and businesses, or nearly half of the country. About 57% of the homes in this territory subscribe to at least one Comcast service. Comcast acquired NBCUniversal from General Electric in 2011. NBCU owns several cable networks, including CNBC, MSNBC, and USA, the NBC broadcast network, several local NBC affiliates, Universal Studios, and several theme parks. Sky, acquired in 2018, is the dominant television provider in the U.K. and has invested heavily in exclusive and proprietary content to build this position. The firm is also the largest pay-television provider in Italy and has a presence in Germany and Austria.
Executives
Strong Dana officer: CEO - Sky C/O COMCAST CORPORATION ONE COMCAST CENTER PHILADELPHIA PA 19103-2838
Bergman Naomi M. director 210 E. EARLL DRIVE PHOENIX AZ 85012
Miller Adam Louis officer: Sr. EVP ONE COMCAST CENTER PHILADELPHIA PA 19103-2838
Shell Jeff officer: CEO - NBCUniversal C/O COMCAST CORPORATION ONE COMCAST CENTER PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Bacon Kenneth J director 5404 WISCONSIN AVENUE SUITE 410 CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Reid Thomas J. officer: Senior EVP, GC and Secretary ONE COMCAST CENTER PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Montiel Maritza Gomez director C/O APTARGROUP, INC. 265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 100 CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Roberts Brian L director, officer: Chairman of Board, Pres. & CEO COMCAST CORP 1500 MARKET STREET-35TH FLOOR PHILIDELPHIA PA 19102-2148
Watson David N officer: Sr. EVP 1100 CASSATT ROAD BERWYN PA 19312
Murdock Daniel C. officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer 1500 MARKET STREET PHILADELPHIA PA 19102
Nakahara Asuka director 527 GREYSTONE ROAD MERION PA 19066
Novak David C director 1441 GARDINER LANE LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Bell Madeline S. director ONE COMCAST CENTER PHILADELPHIA PA 19103-2838
Cavanagh Michael J officer: CFO 1 BANK ONE PLAZA IL1-0877 CHICAGO IL 60670
Burke Stephen B officer: Executive Vice President 41 CENTRAL PARK WEST - APT 11A NEW YORK NY 10023

Comcast Headlines

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