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Lululemon Athletica Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $234.89 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-15), Lululemon Athletica's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $234.89.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Lululemon Athletica's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Lululemon Athletica is -40.64%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Lululemon Athletica's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

LULU' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.65   Med: 1.23   Max: 2.7
Current: 1.41

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Lululemon Athletica was 2.70. The lowest was 0.65. And the median was 1.23.

LULU's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
78.18% of 110 companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.73 vs LULU: 1.41

Lululemon Athletica Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Lululemon Athletica's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Lululemon Athletica Annual Data
Trend Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 72.22 137.59 203.76 140.25 247.24

Lululemon Athletica Quarterly Data
Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 167.99 196.97 207.57 247.24 234.89

Lululemon Athletica Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 16.50%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 16.50% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 16.50%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $7.870.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Lululemon Athletica's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.165)/(1+0.09) = 1.0688073394495
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=7.870*29.8468
=234.89

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(234.89-330.34)/234.89
=-40.64 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Lululemon Athletica  (NAS:LULU) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Lululemon Athletica Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Lululemon Athletica's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Lululemon Athletica Business Description

Lululemon Athletica logo
Address
1818 Cornwall Avenue, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6J 1C7
Lululemon Athletica Inc. designs, distributes, and markets athletic apparel and accessories for women, men, and girls. Lululemon offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for both leisure and athletic activities such as yoga and running. The company also sells fitness accessories, such as bags, yoga mats, and equipment. Lululemon sells its products through more than 550 company-owned stores in 17 countries, e-commerce, outlets, and wholesale accounts. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Executives
Neuburger Nicole officer: Chief Brand Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Loehnis Alison director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J1C7
Maestrini Andre officer: EVP, International C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Choe Michelle Sun officer: Chief Product Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Burgoyne Celeste officer: Pres Americas&Global Guest C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Frank Meghan officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Gibson Kourtney director C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC. 55 HUDSON YARDS, 15TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10001
White Emily director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Ferris Stephanie director C/O VANTIV, INC. 8500 GOVERNORS HILL DRIVE CINCINNATI OH 45249
Murphy Glenn director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J1C7
Mcneill Jon director 45500 FREMONT BLVD FREMONT CA 94538
Casey Martin Michael director
Morfitt Martha A M director P.O. BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Henry Kathryn director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA, INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Mcdonald Calvin director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7

Lululemon Athletica Headlines

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