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National Research Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $33.51 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-05-16), National Research's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $33.51.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

National Research's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for National Research is 0.27%.

The historical rank and industry rank for National Research's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:


National Research Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for National Research's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

National Research Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

National Research Quarterly Data
Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

National Research Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 12.80%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 12.80% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 12.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $1.450.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

National Research's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.128)/(1+0.09) = 1.0348623853211
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.450*23.1128
=33.51

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(33.51-33.42)/33.51
=0.27 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


National Research  (NAS:NRC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


National Research Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of National Research's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


National Research Business Description

National Research logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1245 Q Street, Lincoln, NE, USA, 68508
National Research Corp is a provider of analytics and insights that facilitate measurement and improvement of the patient and employee experience while also increasing patient engagement and customer loyalty for healthcare providers, payers, and other healthcare organizations. Its portfolio of solutions represents a set of capabilities that individually and collectively provide value to clients. The solutions are offered at an enterprise level through the Voice of the Customer platform, The Governance Institute, and legacy Experience solutions. It operates in the US and Canada, of which key revenue is derived from the US.
Executives
Jackson Steven D. officer: President C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION 1245 Q STREET LINCOLN NE 68508
Martin Joann M director 6221 ANDREW COURT LINCOLN NE 68512
Nunnelly John N director P.O. BOX 2175 AMHERST MA 01004
Karas Kevin R officer: SVP Finance, CFO, Treas & Secy C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION 1245 Q STREET LINCOLN NE 68508
Berwick Donald M director C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION 1245 Q STREET LINCOLN NE 68508
Mowry Barbara director P.O. BOX 103115 DENVER CO 80250
Amandla Mk Trust 10 percent owner C/O THE BRYN MAWR TRUST COMPANY OF DELAW 20 MONTCHANIN RD, SUITE 100 GREENVILLE DE 19807
Hays Michael D. director, officer: CEO C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION 1245 Q STREET LINCOLN NE 68508
K/i/e Trust Under Agreement 10/24/18 10 percent owner C/O BESSEMER TRUST COMPANY OF DELAWARE 1007 N. ORANGE ST., SUITE 1450 WILMINGTON DE 19801
Endacott Kent E. 10 percent owner C/O WOODS & AITKEN LLP 301 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 500 LINCOLN NE 68508
Beans Patrick E director, officer: CFO and Secretary AMANDLA LLC 709 PIER 2 LINCOLN NE 68528
Warden Gail L director 250 WASHINGTON RD GROSSE POINTE MI 48230
Henricks Susan L officer: President and COO C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION 1245 Q STREET LINCOLN NE 68508
Schorr Paul C Iii director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SCHORR PAUL C III a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Peetz Jeffery T 10 percent owner WOODS & AITKEN LLP 301 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 500 LINCOLN NE 68508
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