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Pricesmart (Pricesmart) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $48.66 (As of Today)
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As of today (2024-04-20), Pricesmart's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $48.66.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Pricesmart's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Pricesmart is -70.41%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Pricesmart's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

PSMT' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.67   Med: 1.4   Max: 2
Current: 1.7

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Pricesmart was 2.00. The lowest was 0.67. And the median was 1.40.

PSMT's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
78.87% of 71 companies
in the Retail - Defensive industry
Industry Median: 0.86 vs PSMT: 1.70

Pricesmart Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Pricesmart's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Pricesmart Annual Data
Trend Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 47.27 42.41 46.58

Pricesmart Quarterly Data
May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22 May22 Aug22 Nov22 Feb23 May23 Aug23 Nov23 Feb24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 46.79 51.79 46.58 47.96 48.66

Competitive Comparison

For the Discount Stores subindustry, Pricesmart's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Pricesmart Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution

For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Pricesmart's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Pricesmart's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Pricesmart Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.62%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Pricesmart's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 1.40%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $4.216.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Pricesmart's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=4.216*11.5406
=48.66

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(48.66-82.92)/48.66
=-70.41 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Pricesmart  (NAS:PSMT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Pricesmart Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Pricesmart's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Pricesmart (Pricesmart) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9740 Scranton Road, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121
Pricesmart Inc is principally engaged in operating U.S.-style membership shopping warehouse clubs that offer consumer goods at low prices. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California, United States, and operates stores in Latin America and the Caribbean, with Central America contributing over half of its net warehouse club sales. The company's revenue consists of net warehouse club sales from merchandise sales, membership income from annual membership fees, export sales, and other income, with net warehouse club sales accounting for the majority of the company's total revenue.
Executives
Edgar Zurcher director BURETE ZURCHER, CALLE 1 ERA AUS 9 Y 11, NO 959 BO AMON, SAN JOSE COSTA RICA G2 00000
Sherry S. Bahrambeygui director 9740 SCRANTON ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Wayne J Sadin officer: EVP and CIO 9740 SCRANTON RD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Ana Luisa Bianchi officer: EVP-Chief Merch. Officer PRICESMART, INC., 9740 SCRANTON RD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Francisco Velasco officer: EVP, GC and Secretary PRICESMART, INC., 9740 SCRANTON RD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Rodrigo Calvo officer: EVP-Real Estate 9740 SCRANTON ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John Thelan director 9740 SCRANTON RD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Christopher S Souhrada officer: EVP-Club Operations 9740 SCRANTON RD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Gordon H. Hanson director 9640 SCRANTON ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Chong Jesus Von officer: EVP-Foods Merchandising PRICESMART, INC., 9740 SCRANTON RD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John D Hildebrandt officer: EVP -- Caribbean & Central Am. 4649 MORENA BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92117
Robert E Price director, 10 percent owner, officer: Acting Chief Executive Officer 7979 IVANHOE AVE, STE 520, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Price Family Charitable Fund 10 percent owner 7979 IVANHOE AVE, STE 520, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Nicolas Maslowski officer: EVP-Member Experience 9740 SCRANTON RD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Juan Ignacio Biehl officer: EVP and CTO 9740 SCRANTON RD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121