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CarMax Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $181.54 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-12-07), CarMax's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $181.54.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

CarMax's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for CarMax is 17.22%.

The historical rank and industry rank for CarMax's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

NYSE:KMX' s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.34   Med: 0.6   Max: 1.03
Current: 0.83

0.34
1.03

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of CarMax was 1.03. The lowest was 0.34. And the median was 0.60.

NYSE:KMX's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked lower than
60% of the 126 Companies
in the Vehicles & Parts industry.

( Industry Median: 0.66 vs. NYSE:KMX: 0.83 )

CarMax Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for CarMax's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

CarMax Annual Data
Trend Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 120.91 136.45 182.06 153.78 116.30

CarMax Quarterly Data
Nov16 Feb17 May17 Aug17 Nov17 Feb18 May18 Aug18 Nov18 Feb19 May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 132.75 144.88 116.30 183.34 181.54

CarMax Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 13.00%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 13.00% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 13.00%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $7.040.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

CarMax's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.13)/(1+0.08) = 1.0462962962963
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=7.040*25.7863
=181.54

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(181.54-150.28)/181.54
=17.22 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


CarMax  (NYSE:KMX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


CarMax Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of CarMax's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


CarMax Business Description

CarMax logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts NAICS : 423110 SIC : 5521
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
12800 Tuckahoe Creek Parkway, Richmond, VA, USA, 23238
CarMax sells, finances, and services used and new cars through a chain of 220 used retail stores at the end of fiscal 2021 plus one new vehicle store. It was formed in 1993 as a unit of Circuit City and spun off into an independent company in late 2002. Used-vehicle sales account for about 83% of revenue, wholesale about 14%, and the remaining portion is composed of extended service plans and repair. In fiscal 2021, the company retailed and wholesaled 751,862 and 426,268 used vehicles, respectively. CarMax is the largest used vehicle retailer in the U.S., but still estimates that it has only about 3.5% U.S. market share of vehicles 0 to 10 years old but seeks over 5% by the end of calendar 2025. CarMax is based in Richmond, Virginia.
Executives
Oneil Mark F director C/O CARMAX, INC. 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Reedy Thomas W Jr officer: EVP of Finance 12800 TUCKHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Margolin Eric M officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary C/O ADVANCE AUTO PARTS 5673 AIRPORT RD ROANOKE VA 24012
Lyski James officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer ONE NATIONWIDE PLAZA 1-38-06 COLUMBUS OH 43215
Nash William D officer: President & CEO 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Daniels Jon G officer: SVP, CAF 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Folliard Thomas J director 4900 COX RD GELN ALLEN VA 23060
Livesay Jill A officer: VP, Controller & PAO CARMAX, INC. 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Cafritz Diane L officer: SVP & CHRO 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Hill Edwin J officer: EVP & COO 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Blaylock Ronald E director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BLAYLOCK RONALD E a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Satriano Pietro director C/O US FOODS HOLDING CORP. 9399 W. HIGGINS RD., STE 100 ROSEMONT IL 60018
Shinder Marcella director 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Steenrod Mitchell D director 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PKWY RICHMOND VA 23238
Mccreight David W. director C/O URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC. 5000 SOUTH BROAD STREET PHILADELPHIA PA 19112

CarMax Headlines

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