CSG Systems International (CSG Systems International) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $40.98 (As of Apr. 25, 2024)

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What is CSG Systems International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-25), CSG Systems International's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $40.98.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

CSG Systems International's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for CSG Systems International is -18.28%.

The industry rank for CSG Systems International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CSGS's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
61.07% of 280 companies
in the Software industry
Industry Median: 0.995 vs CSGS: 1.18

CSG Systems International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for CSG Systems International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

CSG Systems International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

CSG Systems International Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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51.67

82.16

11.12

44.33

CSG Systems International Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															11.12	20.11	28.74	29.42	44.33

Competitive Comparison of CSG Systems International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Software - Infrastructure subindustry, CSG Systems International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

CSG Systems International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, CSG Systems International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where CSG Systems International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

CSG Systems International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.71%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> CSG Systems International's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 0.90%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $3.551.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

CSG Systems International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

3.551

11.5406

40.98

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(40.98	-	48.47)	/	40.98
	=	-18.28 %

CSG Systems International (NAS:CSGS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

CSG Systems International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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CSG Systems International (CSG Systems International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CSG Systems International Inc (NAS:CSGS) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CSN:Germany

Address

169 Inverness Dr W, Suite 300, Englewood, CO, USA, 80111

Website

https://www.csgi.com

CSG Systems International Inc is a purpose-driven, SaaS platform company that enables companies in a wide variety of industry verticals to tackle the growing complexity of business in the digital age. The company's cloud-first architecture and customer-centric approach empower companies to deliver unforgettable experiences for B2B (business-to-business), B2C (business-to-consumer), and B2B2X (business-to-business-to-consumer) customers, making it easier for people and businesses to connect to, use and pay for the services the company offers. The company operates in one segment i.e. Solutions and Services. Geographically, the company generates revenue from Americas (principally the U.S.).

Executives

Lori Szwanek	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	2803 N 161ST AVENUE, OMAHA NE 68116
Kenneth M Kennedy	officer: EVP Product Development	33 W MONROE ST, SUITE 900, CHICAGO IL 60603
Eric Carrasquilla	officer: EVP Pres. Customer Experience	1600 SEAPORT BLVD., SUITE 400, PACIFIC SHORES CENTER - BUILDING 6, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Rachel A. Barger	director	751 SHERWOOD RD NE, ATLANTA GA 30324
Chad Dunavant	officer: EVP Product & Strategy Officer	6175 S WILLOW DR 10TH FLOOR, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Alfred George Binford	officer: President, Customer Engagement	6175 S WILLOW DR 10TH FLOOR, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Rasmani Bhattacharya	officer: SVP, General Counsel	6175 S. WILLOW DR 10TH FLOOR, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
David Neil Schaaf	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	6175 SOUTH WILLOW DRIVE, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Hai Tran	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O SOC TELEMED, INC., 1768 BUSINESS CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190
Gregory A Conley	director	9197 S. PEORIA ST., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Elizabeth A Bauer	officer: EVP, CMO & CCO	6175 SOUTH WILLOW DRIVE, 10TH FLOOR, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Rolland B Johns	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	9555 MAROON CIRCLE, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Tseli Lily Yang	director	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 525 MARKET ST., 36TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Silvio Tavares	director	20 TIPTOE LANE, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Bret C Griess	officer: EVP, Operations	9555 MAROON CIRCLE, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112