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Lululemon Athletica Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $142.53 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-15), Lululemon Athletica's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $142.53.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Lululemon Athletica's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Lululemon Athletica is -131.77%.

The industry rank for Lululemon Athletica's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

LULU's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
87.5% of 88 companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.70 vs LULU: 2.32

Lululemon Athletica Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Lululemon Athletica's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Lululemon Athletica Annual Data
Trend Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 92.78 147.78 103.76 174.61 322.35

Lululemon Athletica Quarterly Data
Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 272.95 296.45 319.79 322.35 142.53

Lululemon Athletica Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20% which is NO less than 20% => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $3.75.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Lululemon Athletica's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.09) = 1.1009174311927
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.75*38.009
=142.53

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(142.53-330.34)/142.53
=-131.77 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Lululemon Athletica  (NAS:LULU) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Lululemon Athletica Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Lululemon Athletica Business Description

Lululemon Athletica logo
Address
1818 Cornwall Avenue, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6J 1C7
Lululemon Athletica Inc. designs, distributes, and markets athletic apparel and accessories for women, men, and girls. Lululemon offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for both leisure and athletic activities such as yoga and running. The company also sells fitness accessories, such as bags, yoga mats, and equipment. Lululemon sells its products through more than 550 company-owned stores in 17 countries, e-commerce, outlets, and wholesale accounts. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Executives
Neuburger Nicole officer: Chief Brand Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Loehnis Alison director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J1C7
Maestrini Andre officer: EVP, International C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Choe Michelle Sun officer: Chief Product Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Burgoyne Celeste officer: Pres Americas&Global Guest C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Frank Meghan officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Gibson Kourtney director C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC. 55 HUDSON YARDS, 15TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10001
White Emily director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Ferris Stephanie director C/O VANTIV, INC. 8500 GOVERNORS HILL DRIVE CINCINNATI OH 45249
Murphy Glenn director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J1C7
Mcneill Jon director 45500 FREMONT BLVD FREMONT CA 94538
Casey Martin Michael director
Morfitt Martha A M director P.O. BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Henry Kathryn director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA, INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Mcdonald Calvin director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7

Lululemon Athletica Headlines

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