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Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $491.55 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-13), Chipotle Mexican Grill's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $491.55.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Chipotle Mexican Grill is -238.46%.

The industry rank for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:


Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Chipotle Mexican Grill Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 7.60%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 7.60% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 7.60%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $30.4.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.076)/(1+0.09) = 0.98715596330275
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=30.4*16.1693
=491.55

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(491.55-1663.70)/491.55
=-238.46 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Chipotle Mexican Grill  (NYSE:CMG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Chipotle Mexican Grill Business Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill logo
Address
610 Newport Center Drive, Suite 1400, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660
Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales of $7.5 billion over the last twelve months. The Mexican concept is entirely company-owned, with a footprint of nearly 3,000 stores at the end of 2021 heavily indexed to the United States, though the firm maintains a small presence in Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany. Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.
Executives
Maw Scott Harlan director 1411 E. MISSION AVENUE SPOKANE WA 99202
Namvar Ali director C/O PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Filikrushel Patricia director DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION 100 MISSION RIDGE GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Hickenlooper Robin S director 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Engles Gregg L director 1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET SUITE 1000 DENVER CO 80202
Winston Mary A director 557 BROADWAY C/O SCHOLASTIC CORP NEW YORK NY 10012
Carey Matt director 11216 WAPLES MILL ROAD SUITE 100 FAIRFAX VA 22030
Gutierrez Mauricio director 211 CARNEGIE CENTER PRINCETON NJ 08540
Flanzraich Neil director 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD MIAMI FL 33137
Niccol Brian R director, officer: Chairman, CEO 1 GLEN BELL WAY IRVINE CA 92618
Brandt Christopher W officer: Chief Marketing Officer 2202 NORTH WESTSHORE BLVD TAMPA FL 33607
Schalow Laurie officer: Chief Corp Affairs, Food Sft 610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE SUITE 1300 NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Andrada Marissa officer: Chief D&I and People Officer C/O KATE SPADE & COMPANY 2 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10016
Garner Curtis E officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O AEROHIVE NETWORKS, INC. 330 GIBRALTAR DRIVE SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Boatwright Scott officer: Chief Restaurant Officer 1401 WYNKOOP STREET SUITE 500 DENVER CO 80202

Chipotle Mexican Grill Headlines

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