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Delta Air Lines Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $0.28 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-01-21), Delta Air Lines's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $0.28.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Delta Air Lines's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Delta Air Lines is -13,771.43%.


Delta Air Lines Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Delta Air Lines's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Delta Air Lines Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 225.01 - -

Delta Air Lines Quarterly Data
Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Delta Air Lines Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $0.019.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Delta Air Lines's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.08) = 0.97222222222222
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=0.019*14.7595
=0.28

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(0.28-38.84)/0.28
=-13,771.43 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Delta Air Lines  (NYSE:DAL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Delta Air Lines Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Delta Air Lines Business Description

Delta Air Lines logo
Industry
Industrials » Transportation NAICS : 481111 SIC : 4512
Address
Post Office Box 20706, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30320-6001
Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines is one of the world's largest airlines, with a network of over 300 destinations in more than 50 countries. Delta operates a hub-and-spoke system network, where it gathers and distributes passengers across the globe through key locations in Atlanta, New York, Salt Lake City, Detroit, Seattle, and Minneapolis-St. Paul. Delta's sale of frequent flier miles, particularly to American Express, is a major driver of the firm's profits.
Executives
Jacobson Paul A officer: EVP & CFO C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., DEPT. 981 P.O. BOX 20574 ATLANTA GA 30320
Carter Ashton B director C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320
Mattson George N director C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320
Jackson Jeanne P director 537 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE #306 NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Waller Kathy N director THE COCA-COLA COMPANY ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA ATLANTA GA 30313
Taylor David S director THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA CINCINNATI OH 45202
Rial Sergio director CARGILL, INCORPORATED 15615 MCGINTY ROAD WEST WAYZATA MN 55391
Huerta Michael P director 1800 M STREET NW SUITE 800 WASHINGTON DC 20036
Dewalt David G director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: DEWALT DAVID G a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Blake Francis S director 2455 PACES FERRY RD ATLANTA GA 30339
Easter William H Iii director 370 17TH ST STE 2500 DENVER CO 80202
Samant Rahul D officer: EVP & Chief Info Officer C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320
Buffett Warren E 10 percent owner 3555 FARNAM ST STE 1440 OMAHA NE 68131
Berkshire Hathaway Inc 10 percent owner 3555 FARNAM STREET OMAHA NE 68131
Carroll William C officer: SVP, Finance & Controller C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320

Delta Air Lines Headlines

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