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IDEX Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $155.86 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-10-23), IDEX's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $155.86.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

IDEX's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for IDEX is -41.84%.


IDEX Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for IDEX's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

IDEX Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 94.19 - 109.69 147.87 178.44

IDEX Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 176.70 173.43 178.44 168.94 155.86

IDEX Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 11.90%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 11.90% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 11.90%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $6.529.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

IDEX's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.119)/(1+0.08) = 1.0361111111111
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=6.529*23.8713
=155.86

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(155.86-221.07)/155.86
=-41.84 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


IDEX  (NYSE:IEX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


IDEX Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of IDEX's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


IDEX Business Description

IDEX logo
Industry
Industrials » Industrial Products NAICS : 333249 SIC : 3561
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3100 Sanders Road, Suite 301, Northbrook, Chicago, IL, USA, 60062
Idex manufactures pumps, flow meters, valves, and fluidic systems for customers in a variety of end markets, including industrial, fire & safety, life science, and water. The firm's business is organized into three segments: fluid & metering technologies, health & science technologies, and fire & safety and diversified products. Based in Lake Forest, Illinois, Idex has manufacturing operations in over 20 countries and has over 7,000 employees. The company generated $2.4 billion in revenue and $537 million in adjusted operating income in 2020.
Executives
Yates Michael J officer: VP-Chief Accounting Officer 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Silvernail Andrew K director, officer: Chairman and CEO 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Bucklew Jeffrey D officer: SVP-Chief HR Officer 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Ashleman Eric D officer: President and COO 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Cade Denise R officer: SVP-General Counsel & Corp Sec 1011 WARRENVILLE ROAD SUITE 600 LISLE IL 60532
Salliotte Daniel J officer: SVP - MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Mrozek Ernest J director SERVICE MASTER 2300 WARRENVILLE ROAD DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Cook William M director 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Satterthwaite Livingston director 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Christenson Carl R director C/O ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION INC. 300 GRANITE STREET BRAINTREE MA 02184
Helmkamp Katrina L director 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Parry David C director 155 HARLEM AVE. GLENVIEW IL 60025
Beck Mark A director 2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW SUITE 800W WASHINGTON DC 20037
Warner Cynthia J director 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Buthman Mark A director P O BOX 619100 DALLAS TX 752619100

IDEX Headlines

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