As of today (2022-08-11), Progressive's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $416.84.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
The industry rank for Progressive's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:
PGR's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than 62.71% of 59
companies
in the Insurance industry
Industry Median: 0.43
vs PGR: 0.29
Progressive Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data
The historical data trend for Progressive's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 9% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20% Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. =>
Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20% which is NO less than 20% => Growth Rate: 20%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $10.967. However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Progressive's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
Progressive Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Progressive's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has over 20 million personal auto policies in force and is the fourth- largest auto insurer in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the U.S. and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.
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