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Select Medical Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $82.01 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-11-30), Select Medical Holdings's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $82.01.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Select Medical Holdings's Predictability Rank is 4.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Select Medical Holdings is 67.26%.


Select Medical Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Select Medical Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Select Medical Holdings Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - 160.96

Select Medical Holdings Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 160.96 177.49 90.37 82.01

Select Medical Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 10.40%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 10.40% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 10.40%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $3.816.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Select Medical Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.104)/(1+0.08) = 1.0222222222222
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.816*21.4899
=82.01

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(82.01-26.85)/82.01
=67.26 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Select Medical Holdings  (NYSE:SEM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Select Medical Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Select Medical Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Select Medical Holdings Business Description

Select Medical Holdings logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4714 Gettysburg Road, P.O. Box 2034, Mechanicsburg, PA, USA, 17055
Select Medical Holdings Corp is a healthcare company that operates through four main segments: critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and Concentra institutions. Critical illness recovery hospitals and rehabilitation centers are designed for patients requiring extended recovery time with medical services. These two sectors combined compose roughly half of the total revenue and include over 100 critical illness recovery hospitals and inpatient rehab facilities. The outpatient rehabilitation segment includes over 1,700 rehabilitation clinics. The Concentra segment includes over 500 institutions. The company is headquartered in Pennsylvania, and it operates across the United States.
Executives
Ortenzio Rocco A director, officer: Vice Chairman and Co-Founder SELECT MEDICAL CORP 4716 OLD GETTYSBURG RD PO BOX 2034 MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Romberger Scott A officer: Senior Vice President 4716 OLD GETTYSBURG ROAD PO BOX 2034 MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Tarvin Michael E officer: Executive Vice President 4716 OLD GETTYSBURG ROAD PO BOX 2034 MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Saich John A. officer: Executive Vice President C/O SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION 4714 GETTYSBURG ROAD MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Chernow David S officer: President and CEO C/O JUNIOR ACHIEVEMENT INC ONE EDUCATION WAY COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80906
Jackson Martin F officer: Executive Vice President 4716 OLD GETTYSBURG ROAD PO BOX 2034 MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Thomas Daniel director C/O SELECT MEDICAL CORPORATION 4714 GETTYSBURG ROAD P.O. BOX 2034 MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Cressey Bryan C director C/O CLARION TECHNOLOGIES INC 235 CENTRAL AVE HOLLAND MI 49423
Scully Thomas director 320 PARK AVENUE, SUITE # 2500 NEW YORK NM 10022
Carson Russell L director 320 PARK AVENUE STE 2500 NEW YORK NY 10022
Frist William H. director 600 MONTGOMERY STREET SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Ely James S. Iii director 4000 MERIDIAN BLVD FRANKLIN TN 37067
Ortenzio Robert A director, officer: Exec. Chairman and Co-Founder 4718 OLD GETTYSBURG RD POST OFFICE BOX 2034 MECHANICSBURG PA 30309
Tavenner Marilyn B director BOULDERS III 7800 BEAUFORT SPRING DR RICHMOND VA 23235
Breighner Robert G. Jr officer: Vice President, Compliance C/O SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION 4714 GETTYSBURG ROAD MACHANICSBURG PA 17055

Select Medical Holdings Headlines

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